[Jeebs]

Live contests consist of different prize structures, buy-in amounts, and field size. The bigger the contest field, the less margin there is for error. After all, it’s easier to leap frog 10 opponents in a 45 player contest than it is to leapfrog 30 in a 100 player tilt. The greater the prize structure and buy-in, the greater chance that you will be competing with skilled horseplayers and contest experts. Most of these people are sharp handicappers in their own right, and can adapt to most situations that a contest can throw at them. After all, horse races are a dynamic event governed by many variables.

Preparation is key. While one can occasionally get lucky handicapping on the fly, being prepared with your handicapping - having knowledge of each race, having knowledge of your contenders and estimated chances of success, being able to assess your personal confidence level in each race, and attempting to get some idea as to how the contest races could flow based on your personal assessments - will put you on a more level playing field with the sharpies.

Having an open mind is also critical, because the dynamic nature of a contest can render an initial game plan dead in the water after just one race. Being able to adjust to adversity and avoiding the pitfalls of getting down on oneself will go a long way in improving one’s contest game.

First thing to remember in a live contest: Everybody begins on equal footing on the leaderboard. That said, I have no problem with casting a wide range of contenders if necessary. If I feel that the favorite at even money is unbeatable, there’s no point in fighting City Hall. Use the favorite and take what you may believe are the free points (dollars). A $7 contest horse is just as important as a $7 contest horse later down the road - they add up! I don’t care if the chalk is my best play or if a 30-1 bomber is my best opening play - wherever my handicapping takes me on the outset is where I go. I watch the race being run, accept the outcome, and make changes should conditions permit.

If you collect W/P points on the first contest race, congrats! If not, then it’s time to regroup. As each contest race is run, you lose bullets to fire, so if you’re playing at the top of the leaderboard, or in general contention, you have full use of all the horses in a race. Eating a 6/5 chalk in the middle stages while in striking distance of the contest leader might not move you up the leaderboard, but it will likely maintain your position absent from a bomber clunking up for 2nd, which is important since you’re one bullet closer to running out of ammo. On the other hand, if you haven’t had a good day - you’ve let horses slip by you at decent prices, or you can’t seem to pick a scab, let alone a winner - you’re experiencing the joys of the inflection point. The obvious 6/5’s, 2-1’s, and 4-1’s are suddenly of no help to you. Sure, they may still earn you points, but you’re not going to give yourself the chance to make a move. You now have to play horses that you otherwise wouldn’t bother with, even if their form is so suspect, you’d question whether or not they were in form to win a fixed race! As your bullets and contest standing shrink more and more, you are on the fast track to the “dead” zone, where your only chance at any salvation (or saving face) is throwing a dart at the longest shot in the race, and hoping for a miracle. There’s no handicapping necessary at that point. Just heave it at the end zone and hope for a score.

Having an understanding of the race class/conditions helps in identifying potential spots where an inflection point may occur in the form of price horses. Sometimes, the “feel” (or lack thereof) is enough of a clue where it can tip off a chaos race. Same thing goes for being able to verbalize the race based on the chosen pacelines. If the top contender(s) lack a truly usable line, proceed with caution. Anticipating the possible inflection points of a racing contest is part of why it is crucial to prepare ahead of time. A typical live contest online consists of a garden variety of race types: maidens, claimers, allowance, stakes - all at different tracks and across various surfaces and distances. Depending on the horses in a race, the information will either be straight forward, or littered with unknowns. If you’re unable to adequately verbalize a specific race or races, chances are, others are probably having the same difficulty. That’s where decisions are made - in the trenches.

It’s easy for a horseplayer to get lazy in these situations and try to navigate around such races in the safest way possible, and that’s typically by taking favorites, or the likely non-favorites. If your opposition is going to do one thing, you’re best off doing the opposite. This is a textbook situation of throwing conventional handicapping out the window, and anti-handicapping with long odds runners whose data is unappealing to most. If you’re woefully behind, you again likely have no choice but to take this kind of runner anyway. If you have a pulse, this is a sure fire opportunity to capitalize on the inefficiency of the contest crowd. Just remember, you’re playing a low/negative EV runner not on its merits (or lack of merits), but because nobody will likely touch the runner.

The next post will cover endgame strategy.