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Old 09-15-2013, 05:46 PM   #18
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
From FTL's original post: "3 - eliminate any horse that does not have a "+" or "(+)" line at a similar distance and surface in the last 90 days."

The purpose here is two fold. (1) to remind us that if today's distance is a sprint...use sprint races or (2) if today's distance is a route...use route races.

What is a similar distance? Within 1 furlong, 1/2 furlong or more? With 4 distances covering a mile to 1 1/16th would you use any one of the distances as being similar. If the last line was 8.5 and a -0- type race but todays race is 8.2 and the 2nd line back was a 8.2f race with a (+) both at the same class, would you pass the horse because of the -0- race or go back to a race at the exact distance and a (+) race?

"Doc's" guideline was to use races that were within 1 furlong of today's distance. This could open a can of worms for some people. Suppose today's race is 1 mile, can you use a 7 furlong race? NO. 7 furlongs is a sprint, not a route! So where today's distance is 1 mile, any race up to 9 furlongs is appropriate.
To answer your question, no, you would not bypass a "0" race that is 8.5 furlongs and go back to the second line back because it is 8.2 furlongs and the exact distance of today's race.
It is important to remember "acceptable" excuses for going back a line. They are all in the Paceline Manual.


When I last played Finger Lakes they only had 1 mile, 1.70 and 1 1/16 races. Few of them were 1 1/16th. Now they have added 1.40 and from all races run this year, every distance is slightly different in "my" profiles.

My first question here is, do you mean "profile" or do you mean "model"?
In either case, that is a good job of separating the distances so you can see the difference. Many people just put all route races together. They would never see the differences you are talking about.


Mile races are seldom run (only 8 races before yesterday) and show 1Call and FX to have the highest win %. 1.40 races, Turn Time and EP. At 1.70 there are 4 categories tied for top honors, final time, average pace, sustained pace and FX slightly higher. Finally 1 1/16 is still not raced often and all but 2 categories are tied for top honors. What is a bit surprising is at all these distances, last fraction is not among the best categories.

Actually, I don't find that surprising. In my experience, seldom is the 3rd fraction the dominant category. That is not to say it never happens that way, it's just not as common as other factors. Different tracks can play differently, so it pays to keep "models" and/or "profiles" for each track you play.

I have been considering writing a thread on "models", so I'll just touch on that for a moment here. When keeping "models" you should break them down as much as possible. This is not my idea, although I'd like to take credit for it. (lol) These are the words of the model's father, Tom Brohamer. That was his suggestion to me. The idea is to not only keep a model by distance and surface, but also, by sex, class. Personally, I also break my models down by "condition" as well. Why go to this trouble? Well, CLM 5,000 NW2L horses don't run the same as CLM 25,000 "OPEN" horses. If you don't separate them, you will never see if there is a difference or not.

This comes from using the winning horse and his ranking in the various categories. I have his winning %'s for ranking #1, #2 and #3 separately and then 1 + 2 and 1+2+3. I try to rank 5 horses per race and any horse not ranked would still be entered as a 6 in each category so every race run gets recorded.
Thanks for the questions and for the information you provided.
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