Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

rmath · 01-03-2012, 03:45 PM

Mike here is a little update for Aqu.
I now have 60 races
Vdc
1) 24
2) 18
3) 8
4) 5
55 win .9167
43 pbx .717
New Pace
E1) 12
E2) 16
L1) 16
L2) 7
51 win .85
35 pbx .583

49 of the Vdc wins were also NP contenders .82 wins with about 3 horses per race being dual qualifiers. The perfecta was in the dual qualifiers 29 times for a .48 hit rate.
6 of the other wins were top 2 vdc and only 2 were New Pace contenders.
Aqu appears to be a very solid track to play with RDSS & New Pace.

The guidelines mentioned above and in all my testing have remained the same.
between Vdc and New Pace I have only eliminated 3 winners of 60 races
or 5% , this is my starting point for the horses that I am using in the Pic 4 contest. I am working on getting the contenders down to 3 or less and maintain at least 80% winners.
The horses that I am actually betting are the dual qualifiers that go postward at 3/1 or higher.
In the pic 4 contest I am not worrying about the odds as much as I am about hitting the ticket.

01-03-2012, 03:45 PM	#45
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Mikesal Mike here is a little update for Aqu. I now have 60 races Vdc 1) 24 2) 18 3) 8 4) 5 55 win .9167 43 pbx .717 New Pace E1) 12 E2) 16 L1) 16 L2) 7 51 win .85 35 pbx .583 49 of the Vdc wins were also NP contenders .82 wins with about 3 horses per race being dual qualifiers. The perfecta was in the dual qualifiers 29 times for a .48 hit rate. 6 of the other wins were top 2 vdc and only 2 were New Pace contenders. Aqu appears to be a very solid track to play with RDSS & New Pace. The guidelines mentioned above and in all my testing have remained the same. between Vdc and New Pace I have only eliminated 3 winners of 60 races or 5% , this is my starting point for the horses that I am using in the Pic 4 contest. I am working on getting the contenders down to 3 or less and maintain at least 80% winners. The horses that I am actually betting are the dual qualifiers that go postward at 3/1 or higher. In the pic 4 contest I am not worrying about the odds as much as I am about hitting the ticket.