[Ted Craven]

Welcome babuoy! In the Sartin way of things, added weight is not a significant enough difference such that adding or subtracting a relative amount of velocity points - and thus related Early, Late and Total/Average pace ratings adjustments - to an individual horse really has any predictive effect. There is so much uncertainty in any set of velocity numbers or ratings, that such adjustments (IMO) are well within the margin of error and thus, extra noise and unnecessary effort.

Consider:

1. you are picking a paceline(s) to represent a horse today - an estimate of how it will run today (maybe more, maybe less accurate prediction)

2. the actual times for the race maybe more or less precise, at the final but also at the segmental increment points

3. the beaten lengths for each horse may be more or less accurate - and except for the leader, they are a visual guesstimate

4. thus the calculation of velocity and/or pace ratings are only valid within a margin or error - perhaps the same margin that you might consider adjusting for weight.

5. once you get ranked ratings based on the above, it doesn't mean you bet on the Top rank, or Top 2 ranks - of whatever ratings you deem appropriate for this race; a top ranked (e.g. Total Energy, or Average Pace) horse may be doomed in a matchup with too many other horses needing to run at the head of the pack. Or, the public sees the high rank and bets it down, either accurately or ignorantly (or in a spectrum in between): the decision to bet according to a ranking of a pace rating (or other rating) should always be price sensitive.

6. You refer to EP, LP and AP - the 'Modern Pace Handicapping' or Sartin Phase III nomenclature familiar to the public, and thus figures well bet by the public. FWIW, for the past 25+ years, Sartin adherents have been adding other ratings to the decision matrix (e.g. deceleration), with new ratings in RDSS in recent times, which further muddy the contribution of small adjustments like jockey weight to fine-grained velocity or pace-rating distinctions.

7. That said, some race types like Handicaps generally get won by the high weights (relatively better horses get more weight penalties) and you can apply different analysis to filter valid Contenders by sometimes considering weight in these circumstances, while ignoring it in most others. (Search for discussions by members For The Lead, or Bill V on weight in Handicap races).

8. In summary, IMO, weight considerations = too much information. The adjustment to velocity or pace ratings relative to weight carried figures should be NIL.

Cheers,

Ted