Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Contender Selection Situation (Apr 13, 2013

Bill V. · 06-15-2013, 01:01 PM

man I like post like this

Hi Need For Speed

I would use line 3
my reasons
Horse has 14 wins it has won 22% of its races
Its in the money 62% of the time. this tells me that we know what we have
and what the horse does when it runs well which it does most of the time.

Line 1 is a off track with a SR of 78
I only use off lines when its the last line and I have to because I will never know one fact, We can always compare the horses off lines to its fast lines and make a judgement if the off track effected the horse BUT
We don't know without lots of extra work about the OTHER horses in that race.
Is the off track line helping this horse or hurting the other horses Maybe they all hated it

That is a little factious but
lets say there are 3 other true win contenders in the race and they all run poorly because of the slop, it makes horses who don't care advantaged.
Anyway back to the race. Lets look at Adjusted Speed ratings
the tool that Doc himself used.

In its plus races it runs from the bottom up ASR's of
81,78,82,83,78 81 and down to 78
The horse is coming back from a nice 5 week freshening
a Tom Brohamer Positive. after the off track win.
I would use line 3 because as Ted points out its representative of its good form races in speed rating and E/L energy
Running a 81 speed rating

I would use line 3
Bill

06-15-2013, 01:01 PM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Could do this all day man I like post like this Hi Need For Speed I would use line 3 my reasons Horse has 14 wins it has won 22% of its races Its in the money 62% of the time. this tells me that we know what we have and what the horse does when it runs well which it does most of the time. Line 1 is a off track with a SR of 78 I only use off lines when its the last line and I have to because I will never know one fact, We can always compare the horses off lines to its fast lines and make a judgement if the off track effected the horse BUT We don't know without lots of extra work about the OTHER horses in that race. Is the off track line helping this horse or hurting the other horses Maybe they all hated it That is a little factious but lets say there are 3 other true win contenders in the race and they all run poorly because of the slop, it makes horses who don't care advantaged. Anyway back to the race. Lets look at Adjusted Speed ratings the tool that Doc himself used. In its plus races it runs from the bottom up ASR's of 81,78,82,83,78 81 and down to 78 The horse is coming back from a nice 5 week freshening a Tom Brohamer Positive. after the off track win. I would use line 3 because as Ted points out its representative of its good form races in speed rating and E/L energy Running a 81 speed rating I would use line 3 Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 06-15-2013 at 01:04 PM.