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Old 07-03-2019, 08:46 PM   #82
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Above is a horse's PP's from a recent race. Use your slide bar at the bottom of your computer to slide it to the right to see the Total Energy of the horse and the Preceptor for each of its races in its PP's.

A quick analysis of the Total Energy indicates the following: the horse failed 3 times in route races and is a sprinter, he has failed twice on the dirt and his lone sprint was a maiden race which was probably a weak field. His last 3 races all qualify as to distance (within 1F of todays distance) and surface as poly-track races and turf races are interchange.

Every horse has a best distance and when going too far they will decelerate, a horse cutting back in distance will decelerate less and run faster because of the cutback. Sartin said;" its more risky to project because the horse has never ran the distance before, its always more accurate and safe to extract with a horse that's cutting back because he has already ran the distance."

Anytime a horse has multiple wins they need to be investigated, good horses with multiple wins tend to only do what they have to in order to win. If you chose Line 1 or 2 this horses ranks last of my 5 contenders.The best Preceptor is line 3 and ranks this horse on top.

Every horse has a point where the distance is too far causing it to decelerate and not win. This horse is cutting back from 7F to 6 which also tells me he can run even faster going 6 F than 7 F with the cutback.

One can see by analyzing the horses PP's from the bottom up we can find out many things from Total Energy and also the Preceptor will get you the correct line. This is the advantage of using these tools over the older X & O's etc. Also as you can see that even with a win in Lines 1 & 2 which would qualify under the old X & O that all wins(or any position) are not all created equal. This is an example of Sartin's later tools which he didn't get a chance to write about before passing.

This horse won again and paid $9.30 and keyed a nice $38.00 Ex.

Mitch44
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