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Odds and ends:
Pg. 90 of Yellow Manuel " You are out to win money not to display how many winners you can get."
Sartin stated the average user obtained a 63% win rate. For many this was a steep mountain to climb and it was probably more difficult than he let on. However its a worthy goal and one all his teachers had to meet. What held and still holds most back is the difficulty of the subject, as this isn't an angle play and the fact there were no specific rules but plenty of guidelines and exceptions. Most failures came from simply not following instructions, overcome by the complexity of it all they simply threw in the towel and gave up.This still takes place today,no instant gratification, just a school of hard knocks without getting passed on from a bell curve or for mediocracy.
"Check your losers. You will learn more from them than from your winners."
Post mortems allow you to zero in on a specific area of fault which otherwise may go unnoticed. Such as contender selection, poor pace line choice or poor money management. Its a relief to find out a mistake wasn't made and the horse was un-gettable,did something it never did before or an area of weakness needs to be shored up.
Pg 93 Old Yeller: Kelly Criterion
For this to work you must have a degree of proficiency in picking winners, Sartin said "60 %", the bottom line here is no betting technique works without picking winners or can compensate for a losing method. I have found that this is very hard to implement on a race by race basis and even more so if playing multiple tracks etc. My recommendation here is that once you reach a high degree of proficiency and only then, to employ the Kelly at the end of the day or a 20 race cycle. This way your employing and gaining from the power of it but simplifying the process. If your only playing a single track it can more easily be employed.
Pg 95 In the early 1980's Sartin proposed a two horse betting technique of 60% on the low odds horse and 40% on the higher odds choice of your two selections, and this still remains a main ingredient for success.
" Reducing the number of successive losses keeps the confidence level of the wager high, reduces the margin of error of personal error and virtually eliminates the tendency to plunge or to deviate from the prescribed selection process." pg 16 of The Psychology of Winning Manuel; " This practice not only dramatically reduces psychological pressures, it enhances you ultimate return on investment."
FU # 82 Pg. 70 " All you winners know that the higher mutual come from Pressers and Sustained Pressers.
Early speed is overhyped and everyone sees that, what they don't see are the hidden moves and horses that overcome the Pace of the Race. The bottom line is that Match Up supersedes Early speed.
FU # 83 pg. 70 " Don't start betting large sums until you're familiar with the program and have a sizeable record of your own results."
Money management again,why wipe out all you're hard gained work with one stupid wager? This is the action of a gambler not an investor.
FU 81 Pg. 33 When favorites dominate." The solution of course, learn to pass races where there is no value.Easy to say- hard to do. It requires a "feel" . . . sort of intuition that some call instinct." FU # 82 pg.61 " Perhaps the most important factor in successful wagering is learning how to pass races in which the winner offers no value."
This really requires tremendous discipline, never risk a lot for a little return. " No one ever lost money passing on a race."
FU # 76 pg. 19 "If one has a horse paying $7.00 (5-2) or more in the top 3 BLBL Tiers, it should be a bet."
The reason for this is simple, it will make you a profit on the race(60% & 40%) and if not it keeps you close so that when a nice hit comes along its all profit and your not trying to recoup losses. Ditto for a 3rd choice that goes off at least 9-2 or $11.00, Sartin says to always have at $2.00 on this horse. Many a bettor has allowed a 3rd choice to go off at really big odds only to regret it after. For those that have problems separating contenders to get those two horses to bet this should help you considerably but only from horses ranked in the top 3 BLBL or I would add the top 3 V/DC also.
Mitch44
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