Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead
By that measure a 9 furlong race at Belmont is also just a long sprint since it, too, is around just one turn.
It is true that the pace of the race can vary between 7 furlongs and 1 mile races and that is enough reason to not mix the two distances.
CONSISTENCY is the key.
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While I agree that a consistent approach is key, FLEXIBILITY and local knowledge of your track/circuit is also key! My experience playing the NY tracks for many years is that the 1-turn mile races at Aqueduct and Belmont play very similar to their 7F counterparts. Par time charts support this. As you point out above, they do indeed run 1 1/8M (and 1 1/16M) races around one turn at BEL, and naturally, those distances run completely different than the 7F and 1M races. If anything, I would argue that the sudden change in dynamics from 1M to 1 1/16M and greater would be reason enough not to mix THOSE races in the analysis.
Now, would mixing 7F and 1M distances at Gulfstream be ideal? According to my experience and par times, no! This could very well be a function of run-up (Gulfstream was re-built before the 2005 winter season, which was when they expanded the old 7F chute to accommodate the 1M distance). They just seem to run wackier time-wise than their 7F counterpart.
Now, if you're comparing these 1-turn distances across other similar tracks with that type of structure (CD, AP are the others that I can think of off-hand), then the safe bet IMO would be to not mix the 7F lines with 1M lines and vice-versa. All things are NOT equal at that point.
This leads to another question: If 1-turn 1M (or longer) races are technically non-comparable to their 2-turn counterparts, do you mix those races out of necessity? Or do you hold steadfast and assign no line to the 1-turn horse entering the 2-turn race with no recent (<90 days) 2-turn lines? This situation rears its head at SAR and AQU, when horses running 1M/1 1/16M/1 1/8M lines at BEL now appear around 2 turns at those two tracks. In most cases using your guidelines steadfast, it is going to leave a few (if any) out-of-town runners (more the case at SAR) with lines, while many of the NY locals will have no line until they have run over the track at the 2-turns. The reality however, is that the NY locals tend to win these races more often than not, despite "stretching out" to 2-turns.
One last note: Unless it's apples for apples, or I simply have no other turf line to use, I refuse to rate those asinine "7 1/2F" Gulfstream turf races that are closer to 1 1/16M after run-up and rail settings than a true 7 1/2F. Why? They simply don't mix well with other turf route distances either at GP or anywhere in general. I was able to mentally downgrade a favorite off a GP 7 1/2F turf line at Saratoga, which ended up putting me on a $17 winner with a "normal" turf paceline.
Like Bill V. and Shoeless Jeff said, we all appreciate the insight and discussion that you offer!