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Old 02-22-2017, 04:14 AM   #18
Bill V.
The egg man
 
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Condition

hI Pook

Usually I stay away from maidens after 0/10 races .

There are many other in here that are 0/10 or worse

Horse 1. 0/25
Horse 2. 0/12
Horse 3. 0/11
Horse 4. 0/7
Horse 5. 0/11
Horse 6. 0/10
Horse 7. 0/10

The condition for this races could have been Non winners of at least
10 races or NON winners 10 or more races

Everybody except horse 7 is 0/10 or worse

Also I am careful not to use a pace line from Parx from Jan 10 17
That -40 is rating all lines from that day way too fast

using KGEN, I wanted to see what the raw total energy each horse earns
Line 1 for horse 2 gets a 169+ almost 8 points higher than everyone else.

Name:  engen 6 lone early.JPG
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I will rate Horse 2 off line 2 This line puts its total energy comparable to the field.

Here is the energy generator with line 1 and line 2 (named TWO )
Name:  line 2 horse 2.JPG
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I did not bother with horse 1 who could not win a 5000 MCin its last line
at 48/1 and is 0/25 or Horse 5 who is awful.

Horse 2 with a 8 point advantage in total energy blows the others away on Thoromation, I will hide this line and rate off line 2
After projecting and hiding the 4 horse who showed nothing, I'm left with 4 horse to rate

Here is Thromation with 1 adjust

Name:  Thrormation 1.JPG
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Here is the EXDC preplay with Thoromation 2 adjust *
The first preplay screen with the 2 adjust works better than Thoromation

Name:  EXDC 2.JPG
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Using thoromation 2 adjust, the horses almost always finish in a tie
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