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Ted Craven · 11-06-2007, 08:04 PM

Magnetism of the Odds On Favorite (Follow Up #71)

Post time approaches. The handicapping process is complete. I have the print outs. There is a list of horses, BL/BL odds and M/L odds. The choice is clear from read outs and corollaries. Investments in the #4 and the #1 are indicated, BUT the #4 is 8/5 on the morning line and at the second or third flash is at 6/5 and dropping. The #1 opens at 9/5 with a morning line of 5/2. What to do? What to do? Look at the third BL/BL horse, the #6, M/L 5/1 opens at 10. This horse has little in the way of corollary support. Post Time is getting closer. The favorite continues to get action, now at even money. Can all this money be wrong? Can all these players, insiders and outsiders, “smart money” and not, not know a sure thing? Even at even money the ROI is still 100%. What to do? What to do? Post time is getting closer. 4/5. I can’t stop from being drawn to this overwhelming favorite. Indecision starts to set in, there is no value in dutching a 4/5 shot.

I could single him. What to do? What to do? Is he really that good? I could pass the race. Yea, that certainly gets me put of the dilemma. It also negates an opportunity for a profitable return. Is he really that good? I need help. What kind of a race is this? Let’s see, a $10,000. claimer. Well that helps. Pretty inconsistent at this level, still, some do win and look at all the people betting on him. What to do? What to do? It’s almost post time. I have been thinking about this horse so much I can barely break away to look at my options and my read outs. He has to win, doesn’t he? I am being dragged in by the pull of the odds, the magnetism of a “sure” thing, the ‘horsy’ chat of the players.. I take a deep breath and snap the rubber band on the back of my wrist. The “Doc” says this will snap me back to my objective. I return to the thought that in ALL races the betting favorite only wins 1 out of 3. And if the #4 beats me I really will have made the better Iong-term investment by going against short priced favorites.

What to do? What to do? Post time is upon me. I look again at the read outs and make out my bet card. The investment will be using the now 4/1 #1 and the 9/1 #6 in the 60/40 Dutch. The bet is in. There is still some doubt about the favorite winning this race. Odds-on is the biggest magnet going. It seems to drag on every player’s pocket, especially when it is a top ranked “figure” horse. BUT I cannot earn consistently if I lose 2 out of 3 at short odds. I let all these thoughts go as the bell goes off. The tote machines are locked. The race has begun. The favorite is now 3/5. Anxiety increases. As they turn for home the #1 has the lead and Mr. Odds On is playing catch up and will not get there. Winner #1 pays $10.60. The #6 did get up for third. A nice mutuel for the larger portion of the dutched investment.

I had the read outs. I had the horses. I got sucked into the magnetism of an odds on favorite, just to have a win? Just to avoid a loss? And almost waited toolong to get in the winning wager.

The ‘Capper here with a race day reminder use the methodology, work the plan, be profitable. 'Til next time.

11-06-2007, 08:04 PM	#3
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Magnetism of the Odds On Favorite (FU #71) *Magnetism of the Odds On Favorite* *(Follow Up #71)* Post time approaches. The handicapping process is complete. I have the print outs. There is a list of horses, BL/BL odds and M/L odds. The choice is clear from read outs and corollaries. Investments in the #4 and the #1 are indicated, BUT the #4 is 8/5 on the morning line and at the second or third flash is at 6/5 and dropping. The #1 opens at 9/5 with a morning line of 5/2. What to do? What to do? Look at the third BL/BL horse, the #6, M/L 5/1 opens at 10. This horse has little in the way of corollary support. Post Time is getting closer. The favorite continues to get action, now at even money. Can all this money be wrong? Can all these players, insiders and outsiders, “smart money” and not, not know a sure thing? Even at even money the ROI is still 100%. What to do? What to do? Post time is getting closer. 4/5. I can’t stop from being drawn to this overwhelming favorite. Indecision starts to set in, there is no value in dutching a 4/5 shot. I could single him. What to do? What to do? Is he really that good? I could pass the race. Yea, that certainly gets me put of the dilemma. It also negates an opportunity for a profitable return. Is he really that good? I need help. What kind of a race is this? Let’s see, a $10,000. claimer. Well that helps. Pretty inconsistent at this level, still, some do win and look at all the people betting on him. What to do? What to do? It’s almost post time. I have been thinking about this horse so much I can barely break away to look at my options and my read outs. He has to win, doesn’t he? I am being dragged in by the pull of the odds, the magnetism of a “sure” thing, the ‘horsy’ chat of the players.. I take a deep breath and snap the rubber band on the back of my wrist. The “Doc” says this will snap me back to my objective. I return to the thought that in ALL races the betting favorite only wins 1 out of 3. And if the #4 beats me I really will have made the better Iong-term investment by going against short priced favorites. What to do? What to do? Post time is upon me. I look again at the read outs and make out my bet card. The investment will be using the now 4/1 #1 and the 9/1 #6 in the 60/40 Dutch. The bet is in. There is still some doubt about the favorite winning this race. Odds-on is the biggest magnet going. It seems to drag on every player’s pocket, especially when it is a top ranked “figure” horse. BUT I cannot earn consistently if I lose 2 out of 3 at short odds. I let all these thoughts go as the bell goes off. The tote machines are locked. The race has begun. The favorite is now 3/5. Anxiety increases. As they turn for home the #1 has the lead and Mr. Odds On is playing catch up and will not get there. Winner #1 pays $10.60. The #6 did get up for third. A nice mutuel for the larger portion of the dutched investment. I had the read outs. I had the horses. I got sucked into the magnetism of an odds on favorite, just to have a win? Just to avoid a loss? And almost waited toolong to get in the winning wager. The ‘Capper here with a race day reminder use the methodology, work the plan, be profitable. 'Til next time. __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by barb craven; 03-25-2010 at 08:54 PM.