[barb craven]

OUT OF CONTEXT, OUT OF TIME…. (Follow Up #77)

“These are the times that try men’s souls”….Thomas Paine,
during the midst of a three day loosing streak (Common Sense)

“Et tu Brute??”.. Julius Caesar, Inquiring of his good friend Brutus whether he also had Charismatic in the Derby ($64.80)
(from William Shakespeare)


INTO THE POOL

Handicapping thoroughbred races for profit, not merely for fun, is an endeavor that is not natural to most of us, especially if we have grown up with the bias against gambling found in a Judeo-Christian environment. Many horseplayers, attempting to make the transition to profitable wagering, appear to lack a link which would allow them to apply knowledge from other successful arenas to wagering for profit. Most cannot do it, and they end up supplying the winners share for those who are able to do it. One approach to creating the link, for some is to present an analogy which allows them to see how use of knowledge from a previous successful venture can be applied to a different field or endeavor and to make a successful transition to the new undertaking.

It is summer. It is hot outside, a good time to spend some time by the pool. Even in relaxing moments I am frequently struck by thoughts about making successful short term equine investments both to improve my own "portfolio” as well as how to help others overcome their inabilities, fears and anxieties and move over to the winning, profitable side.

It is summer for most of us; and, being out by the pool, I have been watching people, mostly children, and their approach to the swimming pool, especially the non-swimmers. The pool is a big challenge to them. I think learning to swim and actually getting into the swimming pool have similarities with entering the pari-mutuel pool. Like learning to swim and learning to handicap for profit, each of us must let go of previous fears and anxieties.

We must learn to trust in another's instructions and guidelines. And we must follow those guidelines as given until we are successful before we can begin to use the new skills and abilities to their fullest potential. In swimming we must learn and trust that the water will support us if we LEARN to float--we will not need to stand on the bottom or grasp the side of the pool. We are able to float by using ourselves and some instruction, however, no one can float for us. With handicapping we must learn to unlearn our past; that the knowledge we had before is no longer the best way to achieve success; that no one else can successfully invest for us.

You can see the fear in the eyes and faces when the non-swimmer lets go of the pool edge and ventures out towards a familiar, trusting hand. The head is up, the eyes are open wide, and the breath is being held as long as possible, until the safety of the outstretched hand is reached. At the windows you can see the fear as the player vacillates between selections right up to the time he reaches the parimutuel clerk, listening to the bets being made in front of and around him, ready to abandon his first (or second) choice to the whim of some other bettor. He has no trust and no confidence and will ask the same question in the very next race of an entirely new set of bettors.

The want-to-be swimmer, by emulating successful swimmers who are there swimming,along with some instruction or coaching will soon lose their fear when the safety of the edge is no longer in their grasp. The horseplayers with their biases, egos and psychological hang-ups have little chance to become winners. They choose not to learn. However, with a DESIRE to win and to profit a handicapper can evolve into a successful wagercapper (Doc's new word). Then like the fledgling swimmers when the water is over their head the bettor will be as confident of his safety in the pool as is the swimmer. The handicapper will be able to invest with a confidence not known before, in the betting pools. He will be able to return from the betting windows after making successful investments waiting for the next opportunity rather than hoping to find the leprechaun with all the winners.

Swimming, unlike horse racing, is not a stochastic event. It does not change. Certainly strokes get better; some swimmers are faster than others. Some aspire and make it to the Olympic Games. Others become surfers or SCUBA divers. The basic skills are the same. Handicapping for profit takes some basic skills and allows us as individuals to utilize them to our own unique insight and quest. In Vox Populi and throughout the Follow Up we see how some of us are successful pick three players, some pick six winners and some are winning exacta investors. All of these feats come after understanding and putting into practice the basic guidelines of the Methodology.

First we become winners. Then we look at how we can maximize our investments in the exotic pools. In the swimming pool we learned to float, to breathe and to swim. We may go further and learn to breast stroke, back stroke or the
butterfly. First we have to learn to crawl. Always start with the basics.

In order to shift from non-winning to winning DO NOT jump into the exotic pools without an ability to win straight bets. DO NOT jump into the swimming pool if you cannot float. Understand and be able to do the basics. In both cases it is a matter of survival, in the swimming pool literally life's survival depends on it, and in the betting pool financial survival depends on it.

Swimming pools are inanimate creations. The water in them will support whoever is able to learn the skills which will keep them afloat and propel them through the water safely and confidently. There is no age restriction, gender bias or color code. If you have the skill and you practice the method; you will survive.

The tote machines are absolutely fair and unquestionably democratic. They do not care who puts a winning ticket through them. If it is a winning ticket you will be paid. The test is to write the winning ticket. The Methodology has the guidelines to allow each of us to create the winning tickets. However, it is not a black box method and requires some learning, some practice, some understanding and some diligence. It is not magic. To the uninitiated it looks like magic. It is certainly magic to the players huddling around the windows asking the winners and the losers "Who do ya like?" These players like anyone else's selections more than they trust their own.

The Methodology provides the teaching needed to learn to handicap successfully. Follow the guidelines. Do not get pulled under. Succeed in the parimutuel betting pools.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder …. work the plan, be profitable.
'Til next time.