[For The Lead]

My observation is that for the most part people are afraid to lose a race because they left the winner out. So what if you did? Have you never lost a race before?
Leaving horses in that don’t belong probably cause more lost races than those lost because you left the winner out. Leaving horses in that don’t belong and picking lines for those horses causes those horses to get rankings that distort all of your rankings. Their rankings cause you to think they are viable contenders when really they are not.

Here’s my look at this race.
I will be using ENERGY!

No horses have a ML of 20/1 or higher.
All horses have a race in the last 90 days.
All horses remain in at this point.
Now line selection.

#1 – NO LINE. Last line is a “0” race. Line 2 back is a turf race. These are thee only two races in the last 90 days.
#2 – Last line. It is a (+) race at same track and on same surface.
#3 – NO LINE. Last line is a “0” race on the turf. Lines 2 & 3 are “0” races. These are the only lines in the last 90 days.
#4 – NO LINE. Last line is a “0” race. It is the horses only race in the last 90 days.
#5 – NO LINE. Horse only has 2 race in the last 90 days, both are on turf.
#6 – Last line. It is a (+) race at same track and on same surface. If someone used line 2 because the last line was at a higher class I wouldn’t argue with them, but with early horses I am just interested in how they match up against other early horses. Not how they finish, but how they match up early.
#7 - Last line. This is straight forward. It is a “+” race at same track and on same surface.

With only 3 contenders and most ENERGY indicators pointing to the #7 horse it would be hard to miss this winner.