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Old 03-14-2017, 09:35 PM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Hi Gerald

Welcome to Pace and Cap

Gerald I will be honest with you, I don't know anything about
"Median Variant Adjustments." I know its right out of the Yellow Manual
But I never paid much attention to any of the readouts. I came into the methodology in 1997, At that point The methodology was all about downloading and rating pacelines that were adjusted to a common track, a fictional track called Sartin Downs,

I never was very smart at how the readouts were structured.
I was as new as anybody on this site, I knew nothing about handicapping
or betting,

There are a few really smart members here, guys like Ted, Rmath Tim (Lt1)
Mark, Jeebs and especially Richie P, Mitch, and FTL .
Mitch is really a nice man, he explains things so calmly, He got me up tp speed on deceleration after just 2 messages,

Hopefully somebody can help you with median variants

The reason I suggest beginners read the yellow manual ?
I want people to focus on ,
The Match Up
Conditions
Class and APV
Finding the true contenders
Finding and using the correct pace line (s)
Betting for value


I learned and use these lessons/ I use them in my work today.
I ignore most of the readout examples, because they are done with very basic early velocity programs.
RDSS has these readouts in various forms and they are adjusted to a more modern method than using the daily racing forms variants

Here is what I treasure, These are lessons that made me a very good user of the methodology

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Valuable lessons for today's racing
I learned from the Yellow Manual.

The Match Up, - Identifying running styles
Finding the Early , Early pressers, pressers and sustained horses in each race finding the pace of race, and finding who can run competivly against that pace of race.

Form cycle analysis + (+) and 0
Doing my notations for plus , plus within a zero and zero pace-lines

Learned the value of APV- average purse value and CR. class ratings
Doc also gives a formula tho help with how to read the conditions of the race
This is very important, We must read the conditions of the race.

The next two things are the most important things to learn,

Contenders and Pace lines

First contenders,
Who belongs in the race ? How will this horse run in today's race?
You must learn some general class rankings . The best way to learn this is to read the conditions of every race you look at, Then using the result charts lok up who won the race and check its past performances. You will soon learn how to see the ability
of each horse relative to the conditions of each race,

Please also read in handicapping 101 forum anything by FTL he is an excellent handicapper and teacher of the value of reading the conditions of each race and finding true contenders.


Once you know who are true contenders, You can select a appropriate pace line.

Pace lines,
The key to your success, Which Race(s) To Use
I suggest you concentrate on pace lines , starting with page 14
You will learn how to evaluate what the pace of race each horse does well against and what pace of race it can not win if asked to face.
You will learn so much about a horse from doing your + (+)and O notations .

Betting
Most of what you will read about in the yellow manual with focus on betting
2 horses to win and betting your top 2 selections,
Also betting place and show if the odds on your 3rd rated horse was over 9/2 and 6/1

This is a bit out dated. Back then the focus was to win 66% of your bets no matter what odds,
Today the thing is ROI and using all the available pools
Today we focus on our top 3 or 4 ranked horses and bet for value.

These topics are what I feel helped me become the successful user of the Methodology
It does not matter what program I use - I do well with them all , because always focus on them .

Good Skill
Bill V.
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