Notes on what I have been doing with Rich (who is a great teacher BTW and won’t let me get away with anything) this past month to improve my ROI, in no particular order.
First, I must say I started all this because I was interested in what Ted was doing, and he had the idea that someone who had no experience with horses at all could use his program. He thought that if Aline Best could do it with Doc Sartin, there was no reason I couldn’t do it too. As Tim Y. said just the other day “total rookies without the infused background of all of the ridiculous "horsey" rules do far better than those who buck the ideas from day one.” I want to see if this holds true.
Ted and I started with weekly tutorials to help me understand the basiscs of horse racing, wagering and the program. He lent me his followups and some other books. I spent the first few months just trying to learn the language. I filled book after book with races and how I did. I didn’t know at that time about the racing decision forms, but I have books filled with data on every race I have ever looked at.
I opened an account with HPI and promptly lost my first and second bankroll, not because I was betting losers al the time, but because I was betting mostly on non-profitable winners.
It became clear at some point this spring that if I was going to really get anywhere, I needed a lot more tutelage and I was reluctant to ask Ted for more time because I knew he needed to get on with finishing RDSS. Rich offered to take me on. I quit betting real money and went back to paper and the wagering decision forms until I learned some lessons which were essential.
We do races live. I take the lead with him offering suggestions and sharing nuggets of information as we go along, and then reinforcing them by giving me races to do that will be an example of what we were talking about.
First you have to find your own comfort level. By that I mean learn to know how many races a day you can handle and keep your concentration. For me it is in the 5-7 range. Any more and I start to make stupid mistakes. I was doing 10,15, sometimes 20 races a day at several tracks – trying to emulate you guys who have been around a long time, and I’m not anywhere close to that, and will never be.
Play in real time and stick to one track, two at the most. Again, for me it is Woodbine when it’s running – Wed. night and the rest in the afternoons. At night if I feel like it, I will look at Mountaineer and/or Penn National and do a few until I find my concentration dropping.
Look at every race in the card. Do them, or at least give them a good look through and then decide whether you are going to pass or not. But if you don’t do them, you might miss some good ones. That was one of my downfalls in the past. I would automatically pass certain kinds of races like maidens or turf sprints. Look carefully at all of them, there is a lot of good money to be found there.
When you open a race look at all the horses. Go from one horse to another – just up and down. Don’t mark anything yet, just notice the horses, colour, SR, and any patterns you might see. Go up and down, just looking at the horses. Think about what
you see and mark down anything that strikes you – good or bad or questionable about any horse, that you want to investigate further. If nothing stands out, then go ahead and pick your lines, eliminate down to your top 5 using either BL or Primary and do the race.
If you go up and down the horses and don’t know what lines to pick, don’t do the race.
Having said that, if you get a race where it is totally chaotic like a Turf Route and all the horses are dirt sprint, poly sprint, dirt route etc., pick the best of the last three races regardless of what they’ve done, then look at your BL for possible contenders.
When a turf race comes off the turf you can use the turf lines on Poly . Use best of the last three.
When the morning line favourite has been scratched, be sure to look at that race. It will be be chaos, but use best of last 3 lines.
7 furlongs – early/late graph -on a lot of tracks pick the horses closest to the centre line. At Wo and Tam pick the ones with the longest early sticks
Pattern recognition - look for horses that have been in the money second race back and lost last race badly (within last 45 days tops, better if less). If they are in your 3rd tier and have high odds, always bet them.
Short sprints – two horses who are multi call fighters i.e. 2-2-1-2, and 3-3-1-3, bet them
Workouts – training track – F stands for dirt G stands for turf
You can use 5.5 furlong lines for 7 furlong races for 3 year olds at Woodbine right now.
If a horse hasn’t run for a year or more he was probably hurt and healing. Look at him carefully. Has he been working out regularly?
Pass a race if there are 2 or more unknowns like FTS (maidens) or foreign horses with no pps available. Or a 3yr old stepping up in class off a sharp win.
Big bombs – long odds horses – 7,8,9 to 1 automatic win bet
Do at least 3 20 race cycles. And mark
Win
Hide
Pass
Missed – hid low odds horse and it won
Loss – winner is in top 5 bl and is not a hide, but did NOT bet
Lost – winner is not in top 5
Once you have your horses picked, that part of the handicapping is closed. Don’t go back over them and try to second guess yourself. Your first instinct is usually right.
The second part is the wagercapping. The first part is over – Don’t go back.
RISK VS REWARD -If there are 2 low odds hide horses pass unless the next horse on your BL screen has high odds – 7/1 or over and you are comfortable with him.
If top tier horse is 5/2 or 3/1 or better it is always your 1st bet
2nd bet is best overlay in top 3 after hiding if necessary.
Always bet tier 3 if it is high odds.
If the horses in the top 3 tiers are bettable, ignore corollaries and bet the highest in those top 3 if you are comfortable with those horses.
Hide- if your top horse is less than 5/2, hide it and see what comes up in the top 3 BL. If the top tier is more than 5/2 it is your first bet If there is a long odds horse in tier 3, that is your 2nd bet. You will lose some, but more often the favourite doesn’t win.
Pass learn to pass unwinnable races. (My biggest downfall)
WAGERING WITH ALINE BEST
If big odds horse is in 4th tier with some 2 and 3 colollaries, put a small bet on it.
On picking pace lines – put a small ? beside any horse you have a question about
If you hide a horse it might improve your top 4 – look at your deceleration/ velocity for rank
Don’t look at collolaries in your top 3 tiers.
Look at the rank in Primary on Analysis screen and hide up to 5.
FROM HAT ABOUT WOODBINE
If Poly is wet is will be fast
If Poly is hot, look for closers
There is probably a lot more Mike that will come to me, but if I don’t stop now you will never see it.
Attached are my first 3 wagering sheets with Rich - this is my first time doing this and neither Ted or Rich are around to help me. Here goes nothing!
WDF.Barb.Craven.20090602.xls
WDF.Barb.Craven.20090611.xls
WDF.Barb.Craven.20090629.xls
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