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Old 07-29-2009, 12:03 PM   #7
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless View Post
I understand fully that a winner is a winner is a winner, especially at a 30-1 mutuel, but with those boxcars aside, how prudent is it really to select pacelines that are eight- and nine races deep ??
My earlier comments about this horse were along the line of thinking: you have to be prepared (and you probably have to have some of record keeping showing successful ROI) to be betting on these kinds of improbable horses, at improbable odds, even given nice readouts and inside knowledge of (even if temporary) shifting E/L or other biases. You have to make the same choice every time this scenario recurs, otherwise we all look like geniuses in hindsight (and like Brad Pitt in the mirror). For ever time they hit, how many times do they lose (or worse, divert your bet away from a mere 4-1, also likely, winner).

I would like to have made this analysis before this race, seen the opportunity, made the decision to wager/not wager. And I salute whomever actually made a wager on this horse!

Ted
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