View Single Post
Old 04-04-2016, 03:48 PM   #37
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
What are we talking about here?

I was under the impression that the thread was about throwing in additional horses in exotics wagers. The fellow that started this talked about using trainer stats to find an extra horse for his exotics wager. However, you have taken the opportunity to espouse you own personal beliefs and to a certain extent condescend to those who don't necessarily follow your view. It is absolutely apparent that you have strong opinions and do not resist espousing them assertively.
I and most people that contribute to this forum have familiarity with the Sartin Methodology. I attended numerous seminars in the 90s, in Las Vegas and visited with the Doc several times in Beaumont. I bought Thoromation at full price. I've been handicapping for over 50 years. So I am not particularly tolerant of lectures.
The horses that run 5th, 4th or sometimes 3rd usually at exceptional prices and key larger trifecta and superfecta payouts are not win horses or even ITM contenders for the most part. They are horses that make a living running 5th, 4th or 3rd picking up minor checks, paying the feed bill. They are useful animals and when well handled have long careers.
Recognizing when a horseman is competent and puts good foundations into their charges is a learned skill. Today with the various off track training centers and farms, particularly in the South some horses have prepped at the farm or off track. Where horses have not raced for 60 days and are required to have one published workout, they are often horribly slow. But generally the old rule of thumb of 1/2 furlong a day between workouts and races will not steer you wrong. If you are observant and have a decent memory you will know what trainers employ these tactics and include that in your decision making process.
Again the subject of this thread was about training stats and exotics wagering. My remarks were in support of the use of stats or at least local knowledge to find horses that are fit that can fill those lower exotics holes.
If you have success with your methods that is fantastic but it doesn't mean that everyone has to subscribe to them. That's what makes horse races a challenge as everyone involved as the right and privilege to learn and use that knowledge to their own benefit.
Mark is offline   Reply With Quote