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FU # 58 Giving Preponderance of Evidence Back to the Lawyers. . .
Pg. 30 "Preponderance of Evidence applies only to such evidence pointing to either guilt or innocence that was concurrent within the time frame of the alleged felony."
"In handicapping the only Model/Profile evidence that should be admissible must also be concurrent within the limited parameters of what's true now." "Yes even then(1980's), Brohamer and I warned everyone to keep a current model."
What Sartin is saying here is that if a Model/Profile that isn't current and up to date its totally useless. Some made one and thought it lasted forever for a given circuit, others didn't model the factors they recommended. And with todays RDSS there never has been any recommended factors to model for this particular program because Sartin passed away before he gave us that piece of information. How do we know that? Because on pg.31 he talks about an author embracing a concept or procedure, and the need to "riding that hobby horse forever." "Personally I will change at the drop of reality's fickle hat."
Pg. 34 Talking about the Neo-Laffer curve on pages 32 & 33 he states; "...and you can win just as many races without any Model & Profile." "In short, you will win about the same number of races using no Model/Profile as you would from a Model/Profile based on a huge wealth of back data." In other words old data is worthless.
All that just address's just the fact of old data. How about other aspects? Most models are kept by ranking which is not accurate because the difference between any rank is always one.Their also destroyed by incorrect contenders and pace lines. They use averages which tear down the best and elevate the worse.Sartin also had us model a lot and send in that information which allowed him to make a better mouse trap with every program he developed.
In FU # 80 pg.12 (Factors Altered by Time. He talks about % Med & ESP as no longer being relevant and altered by time. But if you read that the primary reason for not being relevant was because they were so mis-used. I can't help but feel that if he was able to write more that he would have added Models & Profiles to this list.
A Model/ Profile is not needed in order to win." pg.14 FU 80 "However all potential bias is factored in to the V/DC output." The match-up has also been honed to its finest over the years and is considered within the V/DC factor which really eliminates the need for any model. Sartin's treatment is basically do no harm, a good solution in treatment to old school ideas that refuse to die. They also live on only because the good Doctor is no longer with us.
Mitch44
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