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Old 07-06-2019, 01:21 PM   #86
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
FU # 59 The Paceline

Pg. 33 " . . . utilizing a horse's ENTIRE Past Performance chart to determine its chances in today's race."

Every contender I select I do a complete analysis of its PP's to gain all the insightful information I can gather and to pick a proper pace line. An example was given in post # 81 & 82 of this thread(above) to pick a correct pace line and the information we can gather as to a horses best dis. & surface .Additionally I do the same thing with a horses PP's in the Bris PP's because this gives me additional information that is unavailable in the RDSS PP's.This procedure will allow you to downgrade or upgrade horses to get more winners.

Pg. 33 Sartin again emphasized the use of the X and O's that went all the way back to the 1981 Basic Manuel.The reason for this is that as of this issue they were still relevant. This issue was before he developed the Preceptor and had he not passed on he would have placed the X and O's in the heap of Factors no longer relevant. We showed in post 81 & 82 above the power of the Preceptor for a pace line and form along with the use of Tot. Energy. The human eye or any other method can't equate to its power, because it detects hidden moves, considers track to track switches, track variant adjustments and uses the 7 Primary factors. The Preceptor and Tot. Energy work in concert with each other for analysis and selecting the proper line. I have been expounding on the Preceptor for the last 4 years or so and many are now using this tool however others stubborn resistance to change keep them from becoming winners or increasing their bottom line. Adapt or perish not only applies to military life but beyond that to all aspects of life.

Pg. 33 In reference to picking a pace line he states; "Predicative',relative to todays Match Up is even more correct."

This is a sensitive area that for most and is hard for them to employ. As an example an Early horse MAY be able to also run EP or P and it has an advantage over other E types who only run one way and must chase the leader,and will probably give way(decelerate in stretch). I seldom use or do this because picking the best line of last 3 . . . allows the horse some leeway to do what it wants to in order to win. I use it to get place horses that can alter their style to fit the situation and get up for the place or win. An analysis of a horses ESP running style by the computer (%Med) not the visual is needed to employ this from the horse's energy screen.

"Best of the last three (or four when circumstances dictate) at a comparable distance and surface(and to a lesser degree class)is a satisfactory procedure for those unwilling to analyze the Match Up."

Also as I said previously beginners( and most others for that matter) should stick to the last 4 lines for the correct line. After that it may not be the same horse as that previously good race. Going back past 4 requires more expertise and it really does not come up that often.

Pg. 34 & 35 " While horses with the fastest adjusted final times still win a fair share of the races, especially sprints, they are now paying increasing lower mutuals.The truth is: The "fastest" horse is not necessarily the better wager. The horse crossing the finish line first is now,and has always been, the one to bet.

As I have said previously, winners are the springboard to everything. The game is about picking winners not prices. If a horse is too low to bet you need to ask;How can I make money out of this race? This can be done by using as a key to an DD,P3,Ex or even a Tri. Design a bet to capitalize on your analysis of the race and its low odds. This is even more important this time of the year with so many tracks open and a shortage of horses causing small fields and lower odds.

Pg. 35 " There are usually several lines in each horse's Past Performance Charts that are equally predicative."

Usually but not always, but many times more than one line will get the horse in the top 3 which is the main objective. As we saw with our example of Wet Your Whistle that even with multiple wins only one line can get the horse in your top 3. All this(paragraph) really is nothing to be concerned with as the use of the Preceptor solves all this and gives us the solution. Its a ticket to the payoff window,our main destination,otherwise get ready to pull that reserve handle and crash and burn.

Pg. 35 "This is why we see so many Win-Show Exacta tickets."

What happens here is they have the same running style,the match up causes a duel between them and eventually that duel takes a toll causing one to decelerate to get the show slot. A horse immune to this duel /match-up many times gets the Place position,often at a good price depending how gutted one of the same running style gets.

"This horse is the Counter Energy horse. " Only rarely does not one of the in -the-money finishers NOT come from Counter Energy."

Note: Counter Energy horses are shown on the E-L graph(red & blue lines) of the TPR screen.

"By Counter-Energy I don't mean the horse that is most counter. I've always stressed that it should be a contender with at least a top4(and ties) collective ranking regardless of the computer being used."

We're back to step 1 here and getting the proper contenders. If you have the proper contenders both the win and place horse will normally be in that mix. I say normally here because there are other reasons a horse will jump up and get the place. Some of these wake ups are gettable and some are impossible and like wise for the show and Trifecta's. The all button isn't the answer and causes an extension of your bankroll(more outlay), then you either go broke or if you do win your just recouping and not profit making.

Pg. 36 "Appropriate Exotic wagering is the way to overcome the multitude of low priced winners." Tailor a bet based on your analysis.

"To get the higher paying winners one must utilize the enormous potential of the multiple readouts . . . It is necessary to isolate the prime factors that produce long shots."

I always say that if you want to know about the unknown than investigate the unknown. While you can win on just a factor or two, analysis of several screens provide insights to confirm contenders and discount others.

" I have often said that a long shot is a favorite hardly anyone bets on."

People often ask me how I got a good paying horse and I always reply the same way I get any winner. They do come along doing exactly the same thing or a consistent procedure. The public just really made a mistake on the horse by following main steam thinking. Sartin list some on this page, a couple of my favorites are horse's going up in class or coming off a 90 day layoff. I won't list all on this page but you get the point. Sometimes a wider range of contenders can get these horses. I also get them by doing a quick review of my non-contenders for potential good price horses.

Pg. 37 "Become familiar with the power of all your readouts unless your content with only low prices."

I would add all screens within the program as most don't do this and their important to separating the top contenders. A weakness by so many and a major cause of their failure.

Sorry for the length of this last one but it is full of good stuff, and not to be ignored.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 07-06-2019 at 01:24 PM.
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