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Old 08-28-2010, 01:06 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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APV and Class for Modern Times - by Bob Cochran

APV and Class for Modern Times - by Bob Cochran

Note: Following is a discussion by Bob Cochran on the creation and usage of Average Purse Values and Class Rating figures, updated from work done by him and others in the early phases of the Sartin Methodology. APV and CR can be used as a starting point to identify the real contenders in a race. The updated formulas he refers to will be used in RDSS 2.0

APV = Average Purse Value (the average purse for which the horse has recently been competitive, adjusted for various influences)

Class = the highest level at which a horse is proficient (e.g. an in-the-money finish)

When combined, the numbers indicate the earnings ability of a horse, and the level at which it competed for purses. The highest purse money is generally paid for the highest class of race.

This begins with Grade 1, Grade 2, Grade 3, non-graded Stakes and Handicap races, Allowance races , MSW races, down to claimers in descending order.

In recent years, the purses at many tracks are inflated via casinos and slot machines, and on-track games. The higher purses at the lower class tracks do not raise the class level of the track, it merely induces more shipping between lower class circuits.

I separate race tracks in the following manner. High, Average and Low.

You can find helpful info regarding Track Class Levels at the American Turf Monthly web site, or you can use my generic listing.

High class tracks are: Hollywood Park, Santa Anita, Woodbine, Keenland, Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Gulfstream, Saratoga, Del Mar. Churchill is listed as a high class, but I am of the opinion that it is Average class, that’s how I use it.

Average class tracks are: Arlington, Churchill, Hawthorne, Laurel, Fairgrounds, Ellis Park, Calder, Delaware, Fairplex, Golden Gate, Monmouth, Meadowlands, Oaklawn, Pimlico, Turfway, Presque Isle.

Low class tracks: any track not listed under High or Average.

Tracks listed as High class also contain (I) inner tracks which are usually one level lower, especially during other than main track meet times. I don’t like splitting hairs, so I don’t make a distinction between the (I) inner and main track performances in APV-Class calculations.

The differences between Purse Values will sort themselves at some High class tracks. The Average and Low class tracks should be handled a bit differently when calculating APV.

Under certain situations, (state-bred)-(restricted races) are penalized in the calculation of APV. There are tracks which are exempt from any penalties, and in some instances will receive a bonus added to their APV numbers. The tracks which are -

Exempt from APV penalties are: Hollywood, Woodbine, Gulfstream, Calder, Churchill, Ellis, Turfway, Santa Anita, Del Mar, Keenland, Saratoga, Tampa Bay.

The penalty is a 35% reduction in APV. The bonus is a 35% addition to the APV.

For example, let’s say a horse who was bred in Kentucky, but was foaled in Illinois, and is entered in a race restricted to horses bred, owned, or foaled in Illinois. Normally, only Illinois owned or bred horses fill this race. The horse who was bred in Kentucky, foaled in Illinois also qualifies. In my way of thinking, the horse deserves the bonus adjustment during APV calculations.

There is no bonus involved when state-bred or restricted races are carded at the exempt tracks. Neither is there a penalty or bonus adjustment in open company races at the exempt tracks, unless the race contains a shipper whose PP’s show any in-the-money finish (IMF) earnings at a track not listed on the exempt tracks listing. If such a horse has won at today’s level or higher from a lower class track, give it the 35% bonus for APV calculation.

The tracks not listed on the exempt list are handled in this manner. When I speak of state-bred earnings, I mean any IMF earnings in a state-bred or restricted type race where bonus money is added to the purse.

Open company races which contain horses whose earnings box numbers are used to calculate APV or show any IMF in state-bred races receive the 35% reduction penalty in the APV calculation. All horses whose final calculated APV is less than 70% are considered non-contenders, unless half or more of the field are less than 70% of today’s race Purse Value.

A horse may receive a plus bonus of 35% if it goes up 1 track class level: Average to High, or Low to Average, if it has Won at the same race class level at a different track.

The APV calculations for foreign horses use the following multipliers. Total earnings X multiplier for the country before APV calculation.

France = X 4.5
England = X 4.0
Ireland = X 3.5
Germany = X 3.0
all other countries = X 2.5

Race class is divided into 3 levels or groups: High, Average, and Low. There are a few ways to set up a class hierarchy at most tracks. I have found for my purposes, to either secure the condition books from the racing secretary’s office, or save a week of result charts. Starting with the highest claiming price race available, count down 3 levels. If the highest claim price is say $65,000, 3 levels down would probably be about $35,000 which would be Average class and equal to MSW. $10,000 up to $30,000 is the Low class level.

The same procedure will work at an Average or Low class track.

Find the highest claiming price available, reduce it by 1/3rd

Example: $45,000 reduced by 1/3 = $30,000. This would be the bottom of the High class race group. Reduce the $30,000 by 1/3 = $20,000. MSW and $20,000 would be the top of the Average class race group.

Further reducing to the lowest class race top, reduce the $20,000 by 1/3rd or about $7000 ~= $13,000. This and every claiming price lower is considered Low class. ALL maiden claiming races are considered Low class, no matter the claiming price.

An example would be a win at Alw nw1X at a Average track and today the horse is entered in a Alw nw2x or nw3rL at a High track. Technically could be considered equal, condition-wise. It may qualify for the bonus adjustment.

A MSW Win at a Low class track is the equivalent class at an Average class track. This is the up one track class level I referred to earlier. The plus 35% is applied in this instance.

The horse does not qualify for the bonus going from a Low class track to a Hi class track. Each individual must create the divisions of class at their track. My dollar amounts are for example only. It should give you an idea for setup.

Using this method of race class, I am able to determine the class levels at which a horse can compete effectively and which races qualify for a bonus, or a penalty.


We now have Track Class levels and Race Class levels.

The next step is the Horse Class calculation and thus the final CR Class Rating for the horse today. After calculating the horse’s APV, applying either a plus bonus, or minus penalty (or none) if applicable, it’s time to calculate the true proficiency of the horse (class).
Editor’s Note: Bob’s approach to an updated horse Class Rating starts with the same method as used currently by RDSS (described in Version 0.9.7 Release Notes document http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pub...Notes_0970.pdf), which in turn refers to early work described in Follow Up #5). From that point, the following alternate adjustments are made:

-use 8 starts if available in the current year, otherwise if less than 8 starts, use the most recent 2 year starts
-only use 3rd place finishes within 3.5 beaten lengths
-Class rating uses ¼ of APV calculation, as adjusted by the previous discussion using bonuses and penalties for class of races involved.

As with the existing or traditional Class Rating (CR), this updated CR comprises Average Purse Value competitiveness, Earnings per Start and In-the-Money consistency – adjusted for today’s purse funding realities and class of race where the earnings were accumulated.
I hope this information is received in the same spirit as it is given. I did it MY way.

I use APV and Class to:

• Allow myself to go deeper into the horse’s PP’s for lines.
• Compare each of the horses earnings and consistency.
• Check the class level of today’s race.
• To find overlooked horses for inclusion in exotics.
• To eliminate non-contenders for Win.

I don't calculate APV and Class for 2yr olds, nor for 3yr olds until the end of July. There are too few pieces of info on lightly raced horses. These type horses are handicapped using race to race improvement, and sometimes breeding and workouts.

The 3 year APV and Class study I compiled in 1987 produced the win and place horse in the top 5 (plus ties) APV and Class rankings about 90% of the time. I’m not sure this holds true today. Some of the reasons may be the different surfaces, the increased number of infirm animals, new veterinarian medicines, etc, etc - who knows?

This is why i created the new APV and Class numbers. When the racing game changes, you have to adapt, or lose!

Robert Cochran

Note: Bob was expected to be here at Saratoga this weekend, but alas could not make it at the last moment. Any questions about this material can be addressed to him online at Pace and Cap (User name: Bob Cochran).

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