Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

DaveEdwards · 10-20-2018, 05:43 PM

Hi all.

I've given the beaten length issue some thought in the past and ended up abandoning any notion of making adjustments for the value at each call.

I'm sure we can all agree that horses (mostly) run faster earlier in the race than later.

The problem we have is calculating the value of the BL at each call. What information do we have?

Let's assume we are working with fps. What is this telling us? It is saying that the horse covered the first call at an average speed of (say) 60fps. It does not tell us how fast the horse is running at the 1C.

Same for the 3F (as an example) with a 50fps average speed, we have no idea how fast the horse is actually running as it crosses the line.

At best we can only estimate what a beaten length is worth. By definition, a BL at the 1C in 60fps, must also be different from a BL at 59fps.

The solution? Either set up a formula that calculate the value of a BL based on the fps of the leader at each call in each race or pick an arbitrary figure and use that. Tom Brohamer uses 10 feet in MPH in his %E calculations.

If it's good enough for Tom, it's good enough for me whenever I'm thinking in terms of this now. Further to this, once these values are compounded in FW for instance, does it then become a situation of splitting hairs?

I don't believe it's ever going to be possible to be completely accurate with this. Couple that with the race readers best estimate of how far back a horse actually is. The line has to be drawn somewhere, you could go forever on this one.

10-20-2018, 05:43 PM	#11
DaveEdwards Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: England Posts: 489	Incomplete Information Hi all. I've given the beaten length issue some thought in the past and ended up abandoning any notion of making adjustments for the value at each call. I'm sure we can all agree that horses (mostly) run faster earlier in the race than later. The problem we have is calculating the value of the BL at each call. What information do we have? Let's assume we are working with fps. What is this telling us? It is saying that the horse covered the first call at an average speed of (say) 60fps. It does not tell us how fast the horse is running at the 1C. Same for the 3F (as an example) with a 50fps average speed, we have no idea how fast the horse is actually running as it crosses the line. At best we can only estimate what a beaten length is worth. By definition, a BL at the 1C in 60fps, must also be different from a BL at 59fps. The solution? Either set up a formula that calculate the value of a BL based on the fps of the leader at each call in each race or pick an arbitrary figure and use that. Tom Brohamer uses 10 feet in MPH in his %E calculations. If it's good enough for Tom, it's good enough for me whenever I'm thinking in terms of this now. Further to this, once these values are compounded in FW for instance, does it then become a situation of splitting hairs? I don't believe it's ever going to be possible to be completely accurate with this. Couple that with the race readers best estimate of how far back a horse actually is. The line has to be drawn somewhere, you could go forever on this one.