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Old 12-05-2019, 11:00 AM   #11
Bill Lyster
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Bill,

I assume that you know that CSR gives the most recent race the most weight and successive races less weight (last 3 or 4 - I'm not remembering what Ted told me.) Because of this, if the horse has an unusual or poor running line in races 1 or 2 back, the CSR number computed using a bad race automatically downgrades the CSR rank.

Here is a horse from last Friday at DMR. The first screen shot shows the 3 with a top 3 APV (in yellow) but a CSR rank of 5. When you put your mouse arrow on the CSR and click it, it eliminates the worst adjust SR and recalculates, in this case, the CSR rank compared to this field is now 3rd best instead of fifth best. Due to how little lines from 3 races back or more are weighted, the rank has the best chance of changing if lines 1 or 2 are not reflective of what the horse normally does.

This is essentially an NW2L race and the last two races were a little higher class, so you can use the maiden win line or the 2nd back if you ignore beaten lengths and rely on total energy. The chart for the last race does not indicate any problems other than perhaps the fact that better horses were entered.

Recalculating CSR should be done sparingly, much the same way you would analyze a past race for forgivable problems. Sometimes the recalculation does not change the rank, so if CSR rank is a significant factor to your handicapping, be mindful of that fact.




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