Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 12-06-2019, 01:30 PM

Mitch:

I don't think so. As I recall the program uses 100% of last race; 80% of second back, approx 64% of 3rd back and about 51% of 4th back,so if horse has two subpar (your visual) adjusted speed ratings in a row, the rank rarely changes if you have to rely on race 3 or 4. Better to just mentally take the two bad races into consideration (if there are legit reasons to excuse them) and use later lines knowing the horse is prone to racing poorly (or perhaps WAY over its class) several times in a row.

12-06-2019, 01:30 PM	#17
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Mitch: I don't think so. As I recall the program uses 100% of last race; 80% of second back, approx 64% of 3rd back and about 51% of 4th back,so if horse has two subpar (your visual) adjusted speed ratings in a row, the rank rarely changes if you have to rely on race 3 or 4. Better to just mentally take the two bad races into consideration (if there are legit reasons to excuse them) and use later lines knowing the horse is prone to racing poorly (or perhaps WAY over its class) several times in a row.