Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 08-03-2015, 02:47 PM

Adjusted pace lines account for the speed of the track that day as it can be effected by the weather daily. And it doesn't have to be rain either as the summer heat can dry out a track and slow it down especially if they don't water as much to save some money. Also there are track to track adjustments as some tracks are always fast such as SA, MTH. etc. while others are much slower such as Calder. To answer your question the "Doc" didn't believe in a lot of adjustments. I believe in the adjustments as the game has changed today compared to many years back with all kind of crazy run-up distances and lack of watering to save money. ie. GSP this year to save money watered infrequently and ran much slower times than in previous years, which BTY favors late horses. I don't play a lot of California tracks so I'm unaware of what their doing there with the drought. Bottom line don't worry about all this as its incorporated in RDSS best readouts such as BL/BL.
I believe if the unadjusted ratings are used your leaving a lot of money to others. I'm sure someone will disagree with me on this. To them good luck with that. Also in many races you'll get the same top contenders either way. Yes read that last line again. Why? Because all the lines chosen are from the same track and recent etc. My preference is to use the adjusted ratings because of shippers and many other reasons.

The key here for everyone is to use a consistent approach and choose your preference (adjusted or unadjusted) and don't be switching back and forth or your wallet will suffer.

To your other question; its much easier to pick winners than place horses or in other words to play DD, pick 3's etc that an exacta. The matchup in races causes horses to get the place or show position which really shouldn't but true contenders get burned out by the matchup and stop on a dime leaving horses in the field to get finish positions they shouldn't.

With low odds strong contenders I look to exacta payoffs for overlays as they make many mistakes are made there by the public. But many pass these races. One never loses money on a passed race.

I can't answer you excel question as I don't export it.
Mitch44

08-03-2015, 02:47 PM	#2
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Adjusted pace lines account for the speed of the track that day as it can be effected by the weather daily. And it doesn't have to be rain either as the summer heat can dry out a track and slow it down especially if they don't water as much to save some money. Also there are track to track adjustments as some tracks are always fast such as SA, MTH. etc. while others are much slower such as Calder. To answer your question the "Doc" didn't believe in a lot of adjustments. I believe in the adjustments as the game has changed today compared to many years back with all kind of crazy run-up distances and lack of watering to save money. ie. GSP this year to save money watered infrequently and ran much slower times than in previous years, which BTY favors late horses. I don't play a lot of California tracks so I'm unaware of what their doing there with the drought. Bottom line don't worry about all this as its incorporated in RDSS best readouts such as BL/BL. I believe if the unadjusted ratings are used your leaving a lot of money to others. I'm sure someone will disagree with me on this. To them good luck with that. Also in many races you'll get the same top contenders either way. Yes read that last line again. Why? Because all the lines chosen are from the same track and recent etc. My preference is to use the adjusted ratings because of shippers and many other reasons. The key here for everyone is to use a consistent approach and choose your preference (adjusted or unadjusted) and don't be switching back and forth or your wallet will suffer. To your other question; its much easier to pick winners than place horses or in other words to play DD, pick 3's etc that an exacta. The matchup in races causes horses to get the place or show position which really shouldn't but true contenders get burned out by the matchup and stop on a dime leaving horses in the field to get finish positions they shouldn't. With low odds strong contenders I look to exacta payoffs for overlays as they make many mistakes are made there by the public. But many pass these races. One never loses money on a passed race. I can't answer you excel question as I don't export it. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-03-2015 at 02:51 PM.