Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
I get about the same BL order as you do (my DTV ranges may be different = -15 +15).
Attachment 39055
However, one question I would always ASK is - can anyone challenge the Early horse? #2 is the Early horse (indeed, a Fighter). The #5 is the only other Early horse, but as the Projected Pace tools shows, cannot touch the likely times of the #2. Thus - the #2 will slow down and CONSERVE its energy for later disbursement against the likely Closers. Thus, the pace will not be as fast, and today's Total Energies and SRs will not be as high.
Will the Closers over take the #2? Maybe. But if it is unchallenged (as is likely), there is a chance it can hold. We don't KNOW if this will happen, but at 5-1 this is a ripe and recurring scenario for betting on (or somehow including) an unchallenged Early horse.
I might suggest you always consider the above generic analysis of the likely Early battle, when determining if there is ANY value to mentally rejigging the BL Line score.
FWIW.
Attachment 39056
Attachment 39057
Attachment 39058
Ted |
I would like to point out several school of thoughts regarding this problem race at PID:
Early Pace Advantage
As Ted alluded to about the early pace matchup in this race:
Before one goes to the B/L screen, it behooves one to evaluate the energy screen and to analyze the matchup of the 1st and second call of the match-up as the example screen attached.
