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Depends how you define "value". Certainly, before Beyer numbers became "public", he and others who made their own speed numbers and those like Ragozin who made their own "performance" numbers could almost bet the "best" speed number in the race and show +EV. As these numbers became public and part of computer data bases, they became overbet and the "value" disappeared.
Just because a longshot bet wins does not mean it is "value" in a statistical sense. In fact, there has always been a slight (not enough to overcome the takeout) favorite/longshot bias where you lose less randomly betting favorites versus randomly betting longshots.
Value is in the eye of the beholder: if you are getting an 8% rebate as some of the larger syndicates do, there may be value betting a 1-1 shot that has an estimated 50% chance of winning. Value should be looked at statistically: is the implied probability of winning the bet based on the odds offered higher than my estimated probability of winning the bet: that is, if I think the bet wins 20% of the time and I can get more than 4-1, there is value. Similarly, if I estimate the bet will win 50% of the time and I can get 6-5, there is value. High odds and payout do not necessarily indicate value.
The bigger issue in horse racing is, with takeout and breakage 20% or higher, and the large rebate syndicates receiving chunky rebates so their bets are designed to show a small loss before rebates, is there any pool left to show a statistical edge, and hence, "value". Remember, there is a lot of randomness to horse racing. Do not confuse longshots with +EV (value).
Richard
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