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mick: If you observe some races at any distances I.e. 6F this can be observed. In the last 1/2 F,330 feet or about 100 yards some horses appear to be making up ground while others appear to be slowing down. We then watch to see if our horse will hold up or our other choice will catch it before the wire. If the closer is really accelerating he may need more distance to win or if the leader is constantly being caught near the wire he may need a shorter distance. In many cases both are decelerating however one is decelerating faster than the other,such as the leader in my example above.
Keep in mind that some horses run as fast as they can from the time the gates open till they peter out. These types can be identified by their high % Med. Others only run as fast as they need to based on the match up and get up to win if not challenged. In most races they get challenged by cheap speed. However for matchers and the "Hat's" (Brawshaw) concept the more early challengers the better.
There was a good example put up by the POOK the other day named Tall Trees I believe at Park in a MDN Clm. race. A recent claim the new trainer was dropping the horse back in dis. form 6F to 5.5. A zero for 13 horse I believe. I viewed the move as positive however he still lost by a nose or so. Note: "cutbacks in dis. are more reliable than stretch outs" because the horse has already ran the distance. A quote from Doc Sartin.
Now if I'm the trainer of Tall Trees I'm going to drop that horse back to 5F,problem is Park may not run many 5F races if any at all and the owner having invested many dollars, where even trainer costs are about $2,000 per month may not want to ship tp Penn Nat. etc. where they card lots of 5 F races. Well when condition books and races aren't carded they keep running at inappropriate conditions to win and their form gets darkened.
Eventually a better trainer or smarter owner through a clam will find a race to ship into and the horse wins paying much more than it should because of the darkened form.
A big point here is to analyze each horses chart you make a contender an approach the race as a trainer would do, according to todays conditions. That's where the analysis should begin. Even in a loss valuable information is obtained on different horses. For those create a horses to watch list (free from BRIS). How many will put Tall Trees on that list with a comment , play only when dropped back to 5F as needs further cutback in dis. You'll get good odds on many cutbacks and if not it may be the key to a nice P3.P4 or ex.
Beast of luck,
Mitch44
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