View Single Post
Old 08-31-2009, 11:27 PM   #1
pktruckdriver
Grade 1
 
pktruckdriver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
To Model your track or wagers

OKay, I may not be downloading now, but did manage to get 20 races into the Models export from Del Mar for 3 days 28 races, and can not make head or tails from it, as I only put the winner in it and did not get them seperated by distance and surface.

I feel too much info, as all the info is there, for some that may be great, but for me, way too much to comphrend with this mind, sorry.

Now like FTL in this thread
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...ghlight=models

I get the value of this Modeling thing, it is necessary, and neds to be done to find the kinks and help point out losing situations and we all need that info if we wish to proceed to that next level, but... yes always a but, do we get this info in a usable model.

FTL had statistic's that showed him ROI, but does that mean he wagered and made that ROI, or is that what he decipher's from his Models, now I'm confused too, let me try to be clearer.

1. Models , what excatly are they ?

a. Information you gathered that shows you who, what ,when and how the previous races ran and should help you predicting future races, yes??

2. Track Models

a. Are these the different track Bias's, PP wins , Route and Sprint , Turf and Dirt/poly pace scenario's, example, ( tracks favoring early speed for Dirt Sprints and turf races, yet favoring late for dirt routes ) and what am I leaving out, please

3. Wager Models

a. To me the most important, to know what wagers you are winning the most and what wagers you are not, this info is priceless, to me the info you need most, as it will tell you where you need to work harder or maybe even ignore, and where to maybe take better advantage, like Bob's CORA wagering strategy, especially if you have this info in front of you.

Is there any other Models I may be forgetting here, there seems to be something , but I can not put my finger on it, maybe you guys or gals have it.


Questions on Track Models

How long must the model be studied , before you start to use the info?

Does not the Track Bias's change daily?

It seems short meets like Ky and DM and Sar are not canidates for track Models ,due to the short time they run, or is this a myth, as Bias's change daily and even thru out the day, is this not true?

Finding Track bias's info is available bt different sources, are any of them usable forms of info, or must one make his own Track Model, I think the latter is more proffessional ,that's to keep your own.

I ask this as I tend to get things mixed up alot and was wondering if using DRF track bias's or the track's own website for it variants and nuances , and be able to trust them well enough, and use them accordingly.

Until one wagers enough time on enough races can one make a wagering Model of his wagers to see where his Money is going, this questions answers itself, but knowing will make wonders for the ROI?

Would you please comment about your important Model making and why and what info do you leave to others to gather for you ???


Thank you
Patrick
pktruckdriver is offline   Reply With Quote