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Old 05-12-2019, 02:35 PM   #8
CheckMark
Conley
 
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Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
I will put into detail R11 from Gulfstream 5/4/19

Throw outs: #1 and #3
Left with: #2,#4,##5,#6,#7

Final Fraction Raw/ Final Fraction Adjusted (lengths in stretch ONLY)
#2: 138.2-111.4= 26.8/ add 2.3 due to loosing 23 lengths= 29.1
#4: 147.2-133.2=34.0/ add .9 due to loosing 9 lengths=34.9
#5 45.3-112=26.7/ Subtract 1.2 due to gaining 1.2 lengths= 25.5
#6 46.2-112.4=26.2/ Add .6 due to loss of 6 lengths=26.8
#7 45.1-104.2=29.1/ Subtract .4 due to gaining of 2 lengths=28.7

Top FF is #5
2nd best: #6, 3rd best: #7, 4th best: #2. 4 is 5th best but we take T4.

TM Play- #7
SRE Play- #7
W.O Play- #6
PP Play- #6
No Pattern Play or Double Play

My contenders are now: 5,6,7

Next comes Art of Wagering:
Do I have an edge? YES because I have good contenders
Do I have value? YES because all contenders are good odds
Examine all wagering options

After that is Right Situations:
Small/Medium Field: 8 entries or less
3 contenders like all equal? YES. Then BOX in Trifecta, and all 3 odds add to 15 (which they added to around 15.1 or .2)


There you have it folks. We had the winner (#5 @ $17.60) and also the trifecta (5-7-6 @ $28.85)

I love Calibration Handicapping for handicapping races!
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