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Old 04-07-2018, 10:32 AM   #1
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Horsetourneys Last Chance Qualifier

Looking to get a spot in the $75K guaranteed game later this afternoon. The Last Chance qualifier is "pick and pray" (no changes to picks once 1st contest race goes off) and if all 120 slots in this feeder fill, HT will award 12 seats to that big game. The races for this feeder are the 1st 3 at both Gulfstream and Keeneland. Get through that mine field and the big contest races revolve around Aqueduct's stakes, Keeneland's stakes and Santa Anita's stakes. And that contest is a live play (change picks on the fly).

Looking at the 1st at Gulf, a horse by the name of Freckle De Freck (#3) intrigues me. Three starts back, this one was fitted with blinkers and obviously didn't take to them, as Marcus Vitali finally took them off last out. The result was improved early speed/position, though the horse did end up fading to last. This one takes a slight drop from the $16k level down to $12.5k and while I don't like taking horses that are 1-for-32 lifetime in these n2L races, and it is 30-1 ML, there are no champions or any horses with real talent in here. The improved speed with the equipment change last out might have this one in good enough shape to take this field all the way, or at least get the place. In a quick 6-race pick-and-pray feeder contest, it often pays to be aggressive early, as one bomb can often be enough, and others can't adjust on the fly. By the same token, aggression can backfire quickly if you dig enough of a hole, especially if a medium priced horse comes in, leaving you $20+ down after just one race.

Another possibility to me as a medium price is the #5 Miss Americain. It looks like a safer bet and ranks well on Rx. I could play that one in the contest and hedge with #3 in the betting pools for insanity insurance.

If anyone has any thoughts about the 1st 3 at Gulf and Keeneland, it would be appreciated!

Last edited by Jeebs; 04-07-2018 at 10:42 AM.
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