View Single Post
Old 07-06-2019, 04:14 PM   #88
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Thanks Bill for posting this.

In this example using the TPR screen we find that this horse's best TPR numbers and Tot. Energy races is when he ran Sustain. While he has run early his very best races are Sustain and only leaves two possible lines (2 & 3) as far as a pace line. Being this horse is stepping up in class to a G3 the 3 line would be correct and his best Preceptor.

After his big race in L 3 he was given a nice 4 month layoff and came back with 2 wins and figures for a top effort today. The trainer also has figured out this horse likes at least 3 weeks between races or longer.

When I pick a pace line I make sure that line has the correct ESP, in this case this horse's best races are Sustain and I would not pick an early line. The reason he has run good at both E & S is he is a class horse and class horses can do that. He also is a young horses at 4 yr. old with just 10 races, he is improving as indicated by his last 3 races.

Like Sartin says in FU #59 use multiple screens to get a complete picture. I always start my analysis with the TPR screen and I frequently refer to it to make sure my pace line matches a horse's best ESP.These red and blue lines are important and are a depiction of % Med and how a horse runs. Their much clearer than numbers and just pop up at you.

As I said before Horses change their ESP but within their basic E or L bracket because of the match up in a particular race. Think more Early and Late and within those two confines. For an E type it not unusual for it to run E, Ep or P depending on the match up. Ditto for a S, except S,SP or L. Now of course some horses don't do this for ex. an E horse may only have one way of going, from wire to wire with very high % Med and very long red sticks. You can determine some of this stuff on the energy screen of the horse, but even with that and selecting the best of the last 3 comparable etc. the computer will determine this all for you. Where this does help is getting the correct line and the ability to discount horses etc.

Also beware that a horse that changes its ESP or running style in it last race or two and increased its Total Energy or TPR, expect it to keep on improving and sometimes at a big price.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote