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BTW LT1 and I win those NW2L races just like some others. Don't take my previous post that I'm contradicting his stats. I'm aware of those kind of stats also, just giving you some questions to ask , food for thought and to get you away from black box handicapping.
You have to do the work and collecting the data to a specific problem is easy.
Whenever I'm in doubt I consider it an unknown factor. If after analyzing the horse and the race as a whole I'm still in doubt I reply on the stats or pass the race.
An old axiom that's true is horses going up in class after a maiden win their true value is about 1/2 their MC win. That helps me to determine if its properly placed today or a stat throw out. Do the work to improve your game , as handicappers we run into the same problems all the time . Solve the problem as LT1 has done here today. When in doubt play the percentages or pass.
Mitch44
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