Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 05-03-2017, 12:43 PM

For the record, RDSS uses the same TPR charts as did Validator (and Speculator) - which are the same as published in the Original Edition of Pace Makes the Race.

With the following exceptions for LPR: (Note: LPR or Final Fraction in Sprints is the portion of the race between the 4f Second Call time and the Final Time; and in Routes the portion of the race between the 6f time and the Final Time.)

Distance/100 Rating
4.5 ........ 6 (added)
5.0 ........ 9 (added)
8.2 ........ 25 (1 mile 40 yds) compares to 25.2 tenths
10.0 ...... 50 (for final 4f, compares to 24 for final 2f)
10.5 ...... 56 (added)
11.0 ...... 60 (added)
11.5 ...... 63 (added)
12.0 ...... 70 (added)

(Note: pace measured by Second Call time has very little impact on the very short and marathon added distances above).

RDSS does NOT use RAW times - it uses the Adjusted Times found on the Adjusted screen - for the EPR and LPR calculations (and ALL other calculations and factors). All raw distances and surfaces are projected to today's distance and surface. The Daily Track Variant is added according to the settings and constraints in your Configure Settings. The Inter-Track Variant is added (equalizing the inherent speed of different tracks/surfaces to each other) - ALWAYS. If a paceline comes from the same track, surface and distance as today's race - it is still adjusted to a hypothetical norm (aka 'Sartin Downs'). Effectively, from the point of view of the various velocities, ratings, factors and Line Scores in RDSS (i.e. everything beyond the raw Original screen) - the race is being run at Sartin Downs, not at BEL or PRX or SA or GP or whatever is today's actual track.

Then, from the resulting adjusted Second Call and Final times for the pace of the race - minus the horse's beaten lengths at a value of 2 tenths seconds (.20) per length -- the EPR and LPR ratings are calculated according to the original PMTR Charts (Pages 38-42 1st Edition) plus the above additions/changes.

One can always equivocate - or hold an alternate opinion - over the correctness of the adjustment system (distance projections, surface eqalizations, DTV and ITV adjustments) or situationally use different DTV settings by surface or distance - but it IS consistent, which is what we ask of a 'systematic' approach to creating ratings. I always feel that it's up to us to apply all 'local knowledge' or long-term observation about any output of these and other formulas which result in wonky projections and ratings.

Even so - the TPR Ratings (for some) are but 3/7ths of the input into the BLBL rating (3 out of 7 factors), and deceleration further modifies BL to create VDC (and VDC is 1/5th of the input into Rx, etc).

Plus - checking multiple lines per horse to confirm whether a given paceline's ratings are reproducible today given the likely pace setup, plus assessing a horse's form cycle and competitive placement in today's race, plus assessing the wisdom of a bet given the market odds from among the Top 4 Contenders - all serve to smooth out the possible inaccuracies of EPR/LPR calculations from Adjusted Times. IMO.

Also just to be clear - TrackMaster/Equibase does NOT supply EPR or LPR ratings. They only supply raw running times, beaten lengths, Daily Track variants and Inter Track variants. RDSS does ALL the rest using these raw inputs.

Cheers,

Ted

05-03-2017, 12:43 PM	#13
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	For the record, RDSS uses the same TPR charts as did Validator (and Speculator) - which are the same as published in the Original Edition of Pace Makes the Race. With the following exceptions for LPR: (Note: LPR or Final Fraction in Sprints is the portion of the race between the 4f Second Call time and the Final Time; and in Routes the portion of the race between the 6f time and the Final Time.) Distance/100 Rating 4.5 ........ 6 (added) 5.0 ........ 9 (added) 8.2 ........ 25 (1 mile 40 yds) compares to 25.2 tenths 10.0 ...... 50 (for final 4f, compares to 24 for final 2f) 10.5 ...... 56 (added) 11.0 ...... 60 (added) 11.5 ...... 63 (added) 12.0 ...... 70 (added) (Note: pace measured by Second Call time has very little impact on the very short and marathon added distances above). RDSS does NOT use RAW times - it uses the Adjusted Times found on the Adjusted screen - for the EPR and LPR calculations (and ALL other calculations and factors). All raw distances and surfaces are projected to today's distance and surface. The Daily Track Variant is added according to the settings and constraints in your Configure Settings. The Inter-Track Variant is added (equalizing the inherent speed of different tracks/surfaces to each other) - ALWAYS. If a paceline comes from the same track, surface and distance as today's race - it is still adjusted to a hypothetical norm (aka 'Sartin Downs'). Effectively, from the point of view of the various velocities, ratings, factors and Line Scores in RDSS (i.e. everything beyond the raw Original screen) - the race is being run at Sartin Downs, not at BEL or PRX or SA or GP or whatever is today's actual track. Then, from the resulting adjusted Second Call and Final times for the pace of the race - minus the horse's beaten lengths at a value of 2 tenths seconds (.20) per length -- the EPR and LPR ratings are calculated according to the original PMTR Charts (Pages 38-42 1st Edition) plus the above additions/changes. One can always equivocate - or hold an alternate opinion - over the correctness of the adjustment system (distance projections, surface eqalizations, DTV and ITV adjustments) or situationally use different DTV settings by surface or distance - but it IS consistent, which is what we ask of a 'systematic' approach to creating ratings. I always feel that it's up to us to apply all 'local knowledge' or long-term observation about any output of these and other formulas which result in wonky projections and ratings. Even so - the TPR Ratings (for some) are but 3/7ths of the input into the BLBL rating (3 out of 7 factors), and deceleration further modifies BL to create VDC (and VDC is 1/5th of the input into Rx, etc). Plus - checking multiple lines per horse to confirm whether a given paceline's ratings are reproducible today given the likely pace setup, plus assessing a horse's form cycle and competitive placement in today's race, plus assessing the wisdom of a bet given the market odds from among the Top 4 Contenders - all serve to smooth out the possible inaccuracies of EPR/LPR calculations from Adjusted Times. IMO. Also just to be clear - TrackMaster/Equibase does NOT supply EPR or LPR ratings. They only supply raw running times, beaten lengths, Daily Track variants and Inter Track variants. RDSS does ALL the rest using these raw inputs. Cheers, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-03-2017 at 12:46 PM.