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Originally Posted by Turbulator
Here's a screen shot of a horse in the CD 5/6 card 7th race, which illustrates what I'm talking about. The second race back at MNR is an AL race and has a 90 speed rating with the horse finishing second. The third back is a stakes at TP with an 83--the horse came second. In the last race the horse finishes fourth in a graded stakes at KEE with a speed rating of 67.
Do you just have to know when these are abberations, or is it just a guess? I still don't understand why the difference.
Things like this make it very difficult to pick pace lines, especially when some horses have graded stakes races and others don't.
I never used to use speed ratings in my handicapping. I virtually ignored them. I hated them.
Is it any coincidence that my top rated horses in BL/BL 98% of the time are in descending order of speed rating?
Something doesn't feel right here. If it were simply a matter of speed ratings, then isn't that an over emphasis of final time?
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If something doesn't "feel" right then why fight the feeling? Go with what your "gut" is telling you.
Then as a feedback mechanism and reality check keep RECORDS of how your instinctual line selection did against say an "application style" selection of best of last 3 at distance/ surface . You can set a number of days as far as what u will go back to grab a line etc etc BUT compare this with what you do.
The only way to know for SURE is by keeping records. Anything less is just guessing.
Richie
