Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

TheSpokesman · 04-01-2009, 11:20 PM

Larry Jones has announced that he plans to train Freisian Fire right up until the Kentucky Derby and forego further prep races. One has to wonder if he is making the right call.

A six-week layoff has not been historically conducive to winning the Kentucky Derby. At Derby time statistics take on an even greater importance for me as a handicapper. When I took a stand against Curlin winning because he was unraced at 2 some people, including my significant other, couldn't understand. The fact remains, however, that if I choose to bet on something that happens 3% of the time I will lose 97% of my wagers. I'd much rather be on the other side of the mathematics. In the case of Curlin I was right.

I have not researched the statistics regarding this kind of layoff prior to the Derby, so if anyone has the exact numbers or any thoughts on the matter I would be interested to hear them.

I will say that I thought FF's performance in the Louisiana Derby was great, no doubt about it, but I think it has been somewhat overblown. And I wonder if perhaps the Jones camp has decided that Old Fashioned is, indeed, the superior animal.

Either way, I am really rooting for Jones to win it this year.

04-01-2009, 11:20 PM	#1
TheSpokesman AlwNW3X Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Louisiana. Posts: 31	No more preps for Friesian Fire Larry Jones has announced that he plans to train Freisian Fire right up until the Kentucky Derby and forego further prep races. One has to wonder if he is making the right call. A six-week layoff has not been historically conducive to winning the Kentucky Derby. At Derby time statistics take on an even greater importance for me as a handicapper. When I took a stand against Curlin winning because he was unraced at 2 some people, including my significant other, couldn't understand. The fact remains, however, that if I choose to bet on something that happens 3% of the time I will lose 97% of my wagers. I'd much rather be on the other side of the mathematics. In the case of Curlin I was right. I have not researched the statistics regarding this kind of layoff prior to the Derby, so if anyone has the exact numbers or any thoughts on the matter I would be interested to hear them. I will say that I thought FF's performance in the Louisiana Derby was great, no doubt about it, but I think it has been somewhat overblown. And I wonder if perhaps the Jones camp has decided that Old Fashioned is, indeed, the superior animal. Either way, I am really rooting for Jones to win it this year.