[Tim Y]

I have to give the Equibase fellow the beaten lengths taken off the panorama photo of each race each day. NO WHERE else on a day's card does one find more blanket finishes than on the lawn. Sometimes 1st through 5th is only two lengths.

TURF races are upside down and that is one of the many reasons they are so tough to beat.

Quirin, in his great book, Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping makes it very clear: CLOSERS have three major obstacles to overcome; 1) they have NOTHING to do with the pace (slow early paces are a huge problem for them to overcome, 2) the rider has to get a very good sense of the pace of the race and MOVE at exactly the right time and 3) with several horses ALL making that late move, his mount has to be lucky enough to get through the traffic jam that a late moving group of horses puts in his way.

How often is the BEST charge blocked when there are 5 or 6 hoses all trying to move late? I assume this is why the big turf courses of Europe (just look at the late run in the Arc each Fall in Paris) widen noticeably through the lane to give the big late closing group room to get by. I know that Newmarket is the same way. NONE of our North American courses compensate in increased width late.

The wide variability of early pace of race does not allow a uniform platform from which to calculate a late move unless you search for similar paces of race. As a rule of thumb, I discount slow early paces of race for ever being the pace lien for serious evaluation. When the front end gets away with a canter, they will have a lot left in the tank down the lane.