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Old 01-18-2017, 08:36 PM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
First

In regards to using the last line.
I think you are quoting a post of mine.
The quote might have come from somebody else but i agree with it.

Look at the last line for Retire. This is a dud race, a zero 0.
I use the + lines of all the lines in the PP'S to see patterns on the EP/LP sticks.
Look how unbalanced the line is red which means early.

I look at all 3 phase 1 numbers in the + pace lines.
Looking at this horse's + lines can you see a pattern ?

For example look at the EPR numbers. This horse runs best with around a 90 EPR, and about a 88 LPR. It stays pretty close to the center line on the graph.


I used line 3 because after establishing the fulcrum ( horse 2 112.5 ),
I excused line1 because of declining form and possibly too high class.
I get validation from the low EPR being lower than 90 yet the early stick being much larger than the other + pace lines

I excused line 2 becaause of the class, form and 30 DTV. With a fulcrum
POR expected to be fast 112.5 i'm not going to depend on the big adjustmentneeded from a 114+ POR line
plus look at the EPR a 78 is a red flag ( or blue flag , tht this was not a normal line .

I used line 3 I feel this is a representative paceline based on my + 0 (+)
form and past history after a freshening 35 day layoff

GS
Bill

Last edited by Bill V.; 01-18-2017 at 08:39 PM.
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