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Old 09-05-2017, 12:20 AM   #23
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
FTL

Bill is very kind but as I do hit from time to time I am really
not that good with the program. Another thing I do is not trust
the readouts when a longshot appears on top.

I find that the sort screen gets the most winners for me so I
go to that which would have led me to the 3 and 5.I really don't
know how to correlate the other readouts with it.

I do change the variegate as it says in the manual if the top MUV
horse is not the energizer.

Jeff
Ok, let me start with your comment about not trusting the program when there is a longshot “ON TOP”. In the version of ENERGY I have there is no BL/BL, LS (line score), VDC or any other number that would give any indication that the lowest or highest number in any group is the so called “best horse” or “ON TOP”….AND….bets are NOT based solely on odds. In other words, no waggercapping. That is not to say that odds do not play a part, they do. As an example, suppose you get your two horses and one is even money and the other is 2/1, obviously you have no bet. The race would be a pass.
You said that on the sort screen I posted you were led to the #3 and #5. The “sort screen” is always presented in the same way, by ranking of “EP”. This does NOT mean the program is telling you the top two horses are the best, because it is not saying that at all. As an example,. Those two horses are the “top two” in the sort, but since the sort is based on “EP” those two horses are the two best “EARLY” horses. If you look right above the column headings on the sort screen you will see the word “SUSTAINED”, which I circled in red. On the screen shot just above the sort screen you will see the “VARIEGATE” which says “SUSTAINED”, which I circled in red. These two things are telling you that the program has determined, based on the contenders and pacelines entered, that the winner of this race should run “SUSTAINED”. Obviously, the #3 horse can longer be considered. Therefore, the column on the sort screen you should be looking at is the column “SP” (sustained pace). Now, the top two rated “SP” horses are #5 and #4, however number 5 is also the #2 “EP” horse, so is the horse early or sustained? So at this point let’s consider the 3rd ranked “SP” horse, #7. SUSTAINED, to me means late, so let’s look at the column “LX” which is late energy. In that column the top two horses are #7 and #5. Now look at the last screen “EXDC MATCH UP”. On the right hand side is the “LATE EXDC”. On this screen shot you will see #7 is ranked best on “LATE EXDC”. Look at all the things I circled in red on that screen. There is no way to not have the #7 horse as one of your two horses to bet. By the way, even though it was the longest shot on the board!

The reason I always liked the version of the ENERGY program that I have is because I think it was the best attempt I have ever seen at actually handicapping a race! Of course, you better have only true contenders and good pacelines. Entering every horse in the race will only lead to disaster. Likewise, bad contenders and bad pacelines will also lead to disaster.

Now here are some of my personal opinions.
You say you don’t trust when your ENERGY program picks a longshot ON TOP. The first thing is, there is NOT an "ON TOP".
I joined this site 9 years ago and in all that time my view on contender and paceline selecting has not changed one bit. It has CONSISTENTLY been the same.
The majority of races that I have posted have been races OTHER PEOPLE have chosen, not me, just like this race. The point is, I didn’t want to be accused of cherry picking races so they fall into my way of thinking.
Change the VARIEGATE? I don’t have experience at doing that. Changing the variegate is changing the way the program looks at the race. Perhaps it is the contenders and/or pacelines that need to be changed.
I mentioned CONSISTENCY. Everyone has to choose a contender and paceline selection method and stick with it….for a long time. If you have a good method, you will get good results. If you choose a bad a method, you won’t.
From what I have observed, people have a contender and paceline selection method that changes with every race they look at. There is NO CONSISTENCY.
As you can see from the first screen shot I posted showing the first copyright date as 1987, 30 years later the program can still pick winners at good prices. And keep in mind, in those days the use of the original guidelines in the paceline manual were in use! If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!!

P.S. - In your last post you said many times the winner is in the top 3 on your sort screen. That made me smile. Now that you understand that the sort screen is presented in order of EARLY horses, it is no surprise to me that many of your winners come from the top three in that category.
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