Thread: Race selection
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Old 06-19-2018, 11:53 AM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
I don't worry about a comparable distance so much because RDSS will extract from longer lines chosen and project from shorter lines chosen. If I make a horse a contender comparable is unimportant to me. You have to use what you have.

Now when choosing pace lines I attempt to stay within 1/2 F of todays distance and no more than 1 F.

I don't automatically throw out horses that haven't raced within 90 days. Like anything these horses are not all equal just because they haven't raced within 90 days. While the stat for 90 day horses is poor it must be put into context because their all not created equal or the same and you'll go broke playing them all. That can be said of any stat such as 14 day horses, favorites, last out winners in that they are not all created equal or the same. Its up to the player to decide, the problem with stats is that they consider all or throw them all into the same basket. They are not all the same. Or within any stat are they all the same. Races are a similar example, in that all 6 F races are not the same. I.e. If 6F races were additionally broken down by Surface, class track etc. the overall stat for 6 F races change. Ditto or same with favorites, Gr 1 horses win more that the average stat of say 33 % for favorites. That 33% lump in the best with the worst or all those Never won 2 lifetime etc. Like all favorites percentages and stats tend to lump the worst in with the best and create unreliable stats. Its up to the player to do research in order to garner the nuggets that the public doesn't have and whom believe in basic plain stats that the racing game has been spewing out for years.

Sartin once said that after a horse is off 30 days it makes no difference if he was off 90 days. He is correct in that the form cycle is within a 30 day cycle.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 06-19-2018 at 11:57 AM.
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