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Old 11-06-2007, 08:08 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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Records And Records (FU #72)

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RECORDS AND RECORDS (Follow Up #72)
“PSSSST. HEY BUDDY. OVER HERE! YOU LOOKIN’ FOR A WINNER? I GOTTA HOT ONE FOR YOU - CAN’T MISS!”
Looking for an absolute in handicapping? How about ‘bet the horse with the jockey, it will win today’. Boy. That’s one we could certainly single. Only which one is it? How do I know which horses to bet? All this data. All these columns. Early. Late. Energy. Median Energy BL/BL. SPN. TS. TPP. Fractals. Seems pretty easy to become confused. Underlay. Overlay. And the column that is not there. The column that is the most important to me and to you, the ROI. Return On Investment. The Doing is Truing column. If it is always in the red or loss side it does not make much sense to look at any of these other indicators. Unless of course I use a day at the races to make a few business deals to cover the losses and they get written off, like they do with a business foursome on the golf course. So how do I know which horses are contenders and which are pretenders? How do I find not the ‘sure thing’ but the ‘right thing’? RECORDS. It is my RECORDS that show me which factors are the most predictive at this time. That lead me to the winners window. That tell me that there is no ‘sure thing’ BUT that do tell me where the bettable winners are coming from. Without them it is like starting over with each race on every race card. Any advantage I hoped to have gained I have given back if I do not keep records and USE them. Without them I lose the intuitive Sight into how MY handicapping is selecting contenders and winners. Winners I might not have had if I had not had some ‘extra’ information to use as a guide. And it is not information I could get from anywhere else. It is MY data. Like the horse who shows # l’s in TT and HE and with the highest SUPPLEMENTAL readout only a 3 in Entropy and is #3 BL/BL. The Record sheet says this is a PRIMARY Win candidate and it ranks third on BL/BL.

Records point the way to these wins for me. I am not stuck when it comes to decision making and Setting time. My RECORDS have led me to the winners window. Lots of # l’s and #2’s for the top two contenders. The top BL/BL horse is 5/2. The second one is 3/1. That gets us to the 1,2 and 3 BL/BL horses. The records say it is the 3rd BL/BL and one of the other 2. I go with the top horse. The race runs. The #3 BL/BL wins and pays $12.60. The top horse is still running and the second horse places. I get the win. Without the records I sit around with a win bet on the place horse as well as the also ran, and an “I shoulda, woulda, coulda” on the tip of my tongue. And what about the other RECORDS? The ROI! It is no accident that the one thing all the “experts” and “wanna be” experts agree on is keeping accurate RECORDS. They are talking specifically about money invested and money returned, the ROI. This formula does not depend on any esoteric criteria or hype or mumbo*jumbo. It is merely the amount won divided by the amount wagered PERIOD. The shared exacta box ticket with the next table, the flyer on the speed horse in the race I did not handicap (looked like the only front runner in the race and would run off and hide), the $24 ticket on the Pick Six carry-over. All of these “Extras” must be included in an accurate and True investment record. They are a drain on the ROI and must be included so we are not clouded into thinking we are doing better than we are. And if we lie a little, if we cloud it up with “I’m about even”, or “I did O.K.”, it is as if an employee has returned a portion of his wages to the company. Or he took a momentary, voluntary cut in pay. Yeah. Right. This is the Absolute Bottom Line and is the measuring stick of handicapping success or failure.

Ainslie, Mitchell, Meadow, Cramer and Beyer to name a few along with the Doc are all advocates of RECORDS. Especially records on investments and outcomes. And if you want to make it your occupation do not forget to add in ALL the money invested AND the cost of getting the bet made, (the Form, admission, transportation, and program).

The ‘Capper with a race day reminder work the plan, be profitable. ‘Til next time.
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Last edited by barb craven; 03-25-2010 at 08:57 PM.
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