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Old 08-28-2010, 01:14 PM   #6
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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Median Energy Profile Your Track

Median Energy Profile Your Track and Model the Win, Place or Show Horses - by Bob Cochran

A track profile can be compiled using the median energy numbers generated by the win horse at a given distance.

To create a track profile for any racetrack, the first thing I do, is to find out the complement of horses stabled at the track I wish to profile. The racing office or even a few condition books will show you which type or group of horses are in the highest quantity stabled at the track. The most common, and maybe the most plentiful group are sprinters at 6 or, 6.5 furlongs.

Routes at 8 furlongs and 8.5 furlongs are the most common. The reason for determining which group is most plentiful, is most of the tandems appear in these distances. Odd ball distances fill with fewer horses and are unusable due to the wild swing in the median energy numbers. The median energy numbers from the larger groups have less variance, because the same horses are running over and over against each other.

Ok, now you know which distances are available, separate the males from the females, and maidens from winners . I don’t separate the classes in my median energy track profiles, because it is common knowledge that the better class horses usually run more sustained in the late portion of the race. I usually allow a range of 20 to 25% plus or minus in the median numbers.

Remember, median energy profiles are not to be used in isolation, but in
conjunction with the MatchUp process.

I keep a profile of all distances at the tracks I wager, but you don't have to, as you may have a preference of certain distances. It's harder to trust a profile for a distance with limited stats. I find the median energy numbers for 3 year olds and up (after July) to be the most productive in terms of accuracy. For each distance you create a profile, wait until you accumulate at least 30 of the same type distance and surface. I have never trusted median energy profiles for Turf races because of their volatility, but all types can be recorded for your own validation.

From the 30 same type races, remove the very highest and lowest and all like them. Now add the median numbers of the remaining races and average. Try to have a 20 race sample. This is not an exact science. You have ball park information. I usually like horses to be within .15% to .20% of the average median for the distance.

When the races are "balanced" with a variety of running styles, for example 2E, 1EP, 2 or 3 P horses and an S horse or two, the median energy profile can be very useful. Races with "unbalanced" running styles or intruding Early horses may be won by "lone early or lone late" horses - i.e. The MatchUp.


There is an instance where median energy might produce where the MatchUp fails. This is when you are matching up, and the race is found to be a "paceless" race. Median energy numbers may be the answer to the issue.

Now that you know what the median energy requirements are at a chosen distance for your track, where does the winner have to be in terms of placement in the race at a preferred call ? You now need a "profile" for the win horse at this distance.

Any distance Win model can be created by observing a winning horse's beaten lengths at the 4 furlong point in sprints, and the 6 furlong point in routes (i.e. the 2nd Call point, according to distance). Use the Result Charts for the races you used for the median energy profile. Where was the winner at the 2nd call point in the race? Count the beaten lengths if the horse was behind the leader. If the horse was the leader give it 0 beaten lengths. If it was 3, 4 or 5 lengths use this number when averaging the total amount of races divided by total number of beaten lengths for all the races. If you wish, you may also profile the win horses beaten lengths at the Stretch Call. Validate this data for yourself.

Remember: Result Charts show both the traditional lengths behind the horse ahead, AND the alternate lengths behind the leader, i.e. the same format as the line will appear in the Past performances. Use only this latter version of data for determining 2nd Call beaten lengths.

Throw out all beaten lengths which are the result of a lop-sided win by a "lone S or lone E" horse. Try to avoid atypical situations. Prefer races for 3 year olds and up.

Remember, the Race model and Track profile are useful tools for making wager decisions at the tracks of your choice. Unless there are changes in the track surface, the models can be used into the next season.

good luck!

Bob Cochran

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