Dick,
I agree that your choice of horses for your wager is classic
wagercapping, and I would recommend that people at least give that a go, precisely for the reasons you mention, and for the many explanations Doc has given in later Follow Ups on the topic.
My reasons for choosing the #3 are given in another recent post (
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...9&postcount=14), however I reiterate that this is a
personal choice derived after some significant time spent trying to do it '
right' and being troubled by the increasing frequency of well-ranked, lower odds horses I would have to bet against.
Thanks for clarifying Doc's method. Everyone should at least see how that approach suits their temperament.
cheers,
Ted