Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 03-02-2013, 01:45 PM

sa 5th 6.5 turf:

Here is what I put in the computer: The best adjusted SR of those that have run on the course is 78, so for me anyone coming from the main track or another turf course has to have at least an 85-84 ASR to get in here. If they have run routes with 109 or 110 interior fractions, they needed to be on the lead or closely pressing. Caught Napping ran against a fast pace but was not close enuf. Closing-wise his EL of -1.2 is not impressive.

The 3 has obviously been highly thought of from the start, but the layoff is a concern. the best ASR is 89 but it comes with an EL of 9.1. My stakes and allowance model goes up to +6.0 and down to -17.0, so even if I include the line with ASR 79 the EL is still borderline, but now the ASR of 79 is not high enough. Probably on the board but not the winner IMHO. You also have 2 other horses that are E8 so the 3 could be compromised from that angle as well.

The pace of race that the 5 and 10 ran against is not one of the fastest for this course that often sees 4 furlong times in the mid 43's, nonetheless, I am counting on the experience of these two to prevail. I got no clue who can place - model does not help except that place horse has been top 4 CSR 67% of the time.

Good luck to you contest guys and all others --

03-02-2013, 01:45 PM	#7
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Here is how I look at it --- sa 5th 6.5 turf: Here is what I put in the computer: The best adjusted SR of those that have run on the course is 78, so for me anyone coming from the main track or another turf course has to have at least an 85-84 ASR to get in here. If they have run routes with 109 or 110 interior fractions, they needed to be on the lead or closely pressing. Caught Napping ran against a fast pace but was not close enuf. Closing-wise his EL of -1.2 is not impressive. The 3 has obviously been highly thought of from the start, but the layoff is a concern. the best ASR is 89 but it comes with an EL of 9.1. My stakes and allowance model goes up to +6.0 and down to -17.0, so even if I include the line with ASR 79 the EL is still borderline, but now the ASR of 79 is not high enough. Probably on the board but not the winner IMHO. You also have 2 other horses that are E8 so the 3 could be compromised from that angle as well. The pace of race that the 5 and 10 ran against is not one of the fastest for this course that often sees 4 furlong times in the mid 43's, nonetheless, I am counting on the experience of these two to prevail. I got no clue who can place - model does not help except that place horse has been top 4 CSR 67% of the time. Good luck to you contest guys and all others -- Attached Images