Hi FTL
Thanks for the workup of the winner
I have a couple of questions for you.
1. You show line by line the 3 horses class history
but did you also do that for the other 7 horses in the race?
Perhaps the 1 5 7 and 6 also had class advantages from their lines.
I think you have it all wrong. I was not attempting to handicap the race. I stopped by P&C and browsed though the recent posts. I found a couple that I thought were worthwhile commenting on. This was one of them. The only horse shown was the winner #3, so that is what I commented on. It is all together possible that other horses in this race had redeeming features, but they were not shown. I was handicapping “a horse” not “a race”.
The line by line on the #3 horse was not an exercise in showing class history, but rather an illustration of how to evaluate every horse in the race.
First, always start with the bottom race and read up to today’s race.
Second, you are not just reading the class level of each race, but taking note of how the horse performed at that class level, distance, surface, etc.
There is much more to be garnered from an evaluation of each horse in this fashion, but the bottom line is, it’s called handicapping.
Next question
You said “next question”, but there was no question, just a list of LPR’s at CT.
Here are horse three's LPR's from all it CT races
LPR from races at CT
Line 10 82.5
Line 9 81.5
Line 8 77.2
Line 6 82.0
Line 3 74.4
Line 2 64.7
It is my opinion based on our work over the years you are heavily biased against the Sartin programs because you feel the 3rd fractions are overly weighted.
As far as any bias I may have is concerned, I would be biased against “ANY” software that leans heavily in one direction or another. “SARTIN” has nothing to do with it. And as far as “SARTIN” is concerned, I was always a fan of ENERGY and I don’t believe that was biased in any way.
For the sake of clarification, it is RDSS that is biased. It double weights 3rd fraction and that is what I am opposed to. This can be seen on the segments screen where the third segment is TS+F3 which is True Speed + 3rd fraction averaged. True speed being speed from start to finish already includes the 3rd fraction. This approach rewards horses with good 3rd fractions (OTE horses) and penalizes early horses that fade through the stretch in the line being used.
On the segments screen the first segment is “first fraction”.
On the segments screen the second segment is “2nd fraction”.
On the segments screen why isn’t the 3rd segment simply “3rd fraction” to keep in line with the first two segments?
So much for that issue.
However, with Phase 1 the LPR is a point system based on the horse's velocity with beaten lengths and track to track and daily varient adjustments, It truly is a good measure of
the horse's velocity ability, Basic Match Up principles says, The more energy a horse uses in the EPR the less it will have in the LPR
Looking at these numbers What LPR do you project the 3 running
today?
I don’t project any LPR number for the horse. As I said in my previous post, there is no conversion number. It is an understanding of how class determines outcome. This horse is set up for success not failure. An effort that could find the horse in the winners circle. I simply project a good effort for the horse based on handicapping. That makes this horse a contender. As I said in my previous post, my line for this horse would be line 2. As “DOC” said, a horse leading at the first two calls (REGARDLESS OF ITS’ FINSH) is a horse sitting on a big effort. Should that line show me the horse is better than the rest of the field on first fraction and/or EPR, I can only conclude it will improve on that effort today. Evidently “DOC” felt that way as well.
In any event, in order to evaluate the horse, line 1 is definitely not the line to use. It’s the wrong track, wrong surface and wrong class level and will never show the horse as a contender in any way.
In 6 races its best ever LPR was only 82.5
In My, Mitch Shoeless and Tims conversations, the question is where is the 3 going to improve?
I think my two posts illustrate where he horse is going to improve.
I do not see it and I bet against the 3
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