[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Shoeless,

As I said a couple of posts back, DON’T BE CONFUSED!
I maintain that horses ‘off’ more than 90 days win 5% or less. This covers ALL races at any class or surface.



In the above post, among horses ‘off’ more than 80 days (which cuts off 10 days from my recommendation) there were 19 winners. Now, 19 (winners) divided by 250 (total races) =7.6% (win percentage), which is slightly higher than my stat, but NOT accurately compared.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.
The 40.4% win percentage is arrived at by taking 19 (winners) divided by 47 (horses ‘off’ more than 80 days) = 40.4%. Not exactly a comparison of apples to apples when taken vs. my stat.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.

Let me add some more information for you.
Somewhere in all of my posts, I acknowledged that horses at the high end of the class ladder win more frequently after being ‘off’ more than 90 days than do horses at the lower end of the class ladder. But, that doesn’t change my overall stat. The fact of the matter is, if you are only playing the high end of the class ladder, you are not going to play very often.
Also, “TURF” or “GRASS” racing only accounts for approximately 10% of all races run each year, year after year. So again, if your play is going to be limited to turf/grass racing at the high end of the class ladder, you not going to be playing much.
The help I am offering to you and anyone else reading this is for the day to day, bread and butter races that make up the very large majority of the races we encounter day in and day out.

Good Luck!

FTL,
I noticed that since the start of Belmont in the spring, and following on through Saratoga, that a greater % of races at the main Eastern tracks are being carded as grass races. does that apparent observation point you towards any significant areas of your data base that might become more important?

Thanks,