Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 09-22-2011, 01:46 PM

I know that the original poster quoted above was trying to make a point about contender identification based on performance in relative race conditions last out.

But the question posed is too simplistic (IMO) to be answered as is, and I would never advise people trying to understand or implement the Methodology to base a bet solely upon class (based upon entry conditions) of the last race. How a horse ran its last race is a function of the match up of contenders, energy disbursements and running styles in that last race. As it is in today's race.

It depends on what the other horses are likely to do in today's race (i.e. other than the 4 horses cited - no one should make a bet on a 4 horse race ...). Neither should one rate a horse based solely upon what it did in its last race. Last race performance is an indicator (one indicator) of current fitness - but if it's the worst performance of the past 3 or shows declining Total Energy, and hard fought all the way - will that horse improve or decline today, regardless of the 'class' designation of the last race?

And 4 horses who need the lead (no indication of who might be 'speed of the speed') - of course we then want to know who will NOT be on the lead.

And - you should never bet independent of the odds. The crowd may favour that Claiming $10000 open winner moving up today (an obvious last race stat) - but you won't last long betting with the crowd.

That's why, although I personally want to observe class rises (as designated by the man-made class structure) and I would make use of it to break ties at some point along the decision making process, it is not the first (or third) factor I want to consider.

Rather, I want to primarily consider current fitness markers (last race performance - in some segment, recency, workouts since, progression in the last 3 races or so, last 90 days or so), then how the energy based figs (Total Energy, BL/BL, VDC, E/L) stack up using the best of last 3 comparable pacelines. THEN, see if I have a significant enough divergence with the crowd opinion, in any betting pool - otherwise PASS the race.

That's my answer. But - we know all the above, don't we? Or is there some disagreement?

Ted

09-22-2011, 01:46 PM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,865	I know that the original poster quoted above was trying to make a point about contender identification based on performance in relative race conditions last out. But the question posed is too simplistic (IMO) to be answered as is, and I would never advise people trying to understand or implement the Methodology to base a bet solely upon class (based upon entry conditions) of the last race. How a horse ran its last race is a function of the match up of contenders, energy disbursements and running styles in that last race. As it is in today's race. It depends on what the other horses are likely to do in today's race (i.e. other than the 4 horses cited - no one should make a bet on a 4 horse race ...). Neither should one rate a horse based solely upon what it did in its last race. Last race performance is an indicator (one indicator) of current fitness - but if it's the worst performance of the past 3 or shows declining Total Energy, and hard fought all the way - will that horse improve or decline today, regardless of the 'class' designation of the last race? And 4 horses who need the lead (no indication of who might be 'speed of the speed') - of course we then want to know who will NOT be on the lead. And - you should never bet independent of the odds. The crowd may favour that Claiming $10000 open winner moving up today (an obvious last race stat) - but you won't last long betting with the crowd. That's why, although I personally want to observe class rises (as designated by the man-made class structure) and I would make use of it to break ties at some point along the decision making process, it is not the first (or third) factor I want to consider. Rather, I want to primarily consider current fitness markers (last race performance - in some segment, recency, workouts since, progression in the last 3 races or so, last 90 days or so), then how the energy based figs (Total Energy, BL/BL, VDC, E/L) stack up using the best of last 3 comparable pacelines. THEN, see if I have a significant enough divergence with the crowd opinion, in any betting pool - otherwise PASS the race. That's my answer. But - we know all the above, don't we? Or is there some disagreement? Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™