I reviewed some old posts, and wanted to post something from today, and see how I got there, and hopefully get some critique along the way. I made notes from this race today in real time, and am typing it up now that I am home..
SA Race 7
Last Line
Who is the Fulcrum?
The 2 has the fastest EPR, but was not within 5 BL which takes me to the 4. Sure enough the 4 was the EPR of 85.0 and was within 5 BL at both calls.
Is this normal for the 4 horse?
Here is where it gets tricky....One could argue in my opinion that this is not normal for the 4. Which moves me on to the 5. 3rd best EPR, but look how much more consistent this horse is.
So I call the 5 horse the Fulcrum here. at an 83.5EPR. Going by this my contenders are-
1- No Too Much EPR and Not strong enough LPR
2-Competitive EPR, but lacks the LPR to finish
3-2nd slowest EPR, but Strongest LPR- must consider
4-2nd best EPR, middle of the pack LPR- maybe? we already know inconsistent
5-Our Fulcrum- Good EPR, but again middle of the ground LPR
6-3rd Slowest EPR, 2nd best LPR- will have to consider and dive deeper.
7-4th slowest EPR, 3rd best LPR- maybe a tri/super contender?
So right now I am looking at 3,5,6 as my win contenders in this race.
Looking at the segment tab, all these horses are close on total energy- given what we know about Route Turf races, I am gonna have to say the closer gets this job done. Im tempted to play the 6 here as its truly the overlay, but feels like the 5 and 6 get lost in the middle of the pack- hopefully the 5 can hold and stay on the board.