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Old 11-24-2021, 04:59 PM   #22
kahunab
Grade 2
 
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Colorado
Posts: 79
PEN Race 5

I think this race is a very interesting race with a pattern we should all look for.

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Using our criteria we can eliminate only one horse the 3 for win contention. We look at running styles and find a very interesting picture. We find an E8 and two E7s. That is 21 early speed points and indicates a Heavy Pressure race. We best be looking for late running styles.

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By running styles we have two contenders that run Presser or Sustained. We have the 5 who looks like a late runner but is an E8 under heavy pressure. 2 and 4 are Early horses who will be a part of the heavy pressure.

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The 5 still has great numbers. Of the two late runners, 6 and 1, the 6 appears to be stronger until we look at his LPR and he looks weak late. HMMMM, kind of a cloudy picture.

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Here is where we can get number blind. The 5 horse looks great. Even rated #1 late. Great 3rd fraction numbers. We can lose sight of the 21 early speed points and know that a late runner will win. Unless he can change his running style he will blow up and all the earlys will get caught. I also made a mistake by not checking the horses lines in my fast handicapping. The one horse was given his 3rd line back and his last line should have been the one he was given by the program. With his 3rd line back he rates at the bottom with the 6 horse.

My point is either way, running style and heavy pressure really call for us to bet the 1 and the 6 as our win choices. All numbers aside.

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I hope these two races give you some helpful ideas. Know also, that it is easy to become number blind especially if we handicap in a hurry.

Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Handicapping!
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 11-24-2021 at 08:03 PM.
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