Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Tim Y · 11-25-2021, 02:05 PM

Early pace expression is usually MUCH easier to evaluate since it does NOT function as dependent upon anything other than that line itself. There is no "rabbit" inside the rail. The effect of another horse pushing is minor over all unless is was WAY OUT OF LINE for that particular horse.

On the other side of the coin are the pressers and sustained efforts: THEY are all in response to another horse. Just because a horse had a good line as a presser or sustained animal, TO WHAT PACE OF RACE did it react to? Apples and orange come up again and again unless you can find and project an early pace of race that this presser or sustained horse would be running to chase TODAY.

Choosing a pace line that was a bit EARLER or LATER than is projected as the early pace of race TODAY, introduces a large sample error and I find that is the toughest thing to do in pace analysis.

Ideas?

11-25-2021, 02:05 PM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Inherent difficulties with chosing lines Early pace expression is usually MUCH easier to evaluate since it does NOT function as dependent upon anything other than that line itself. There is no "rabbit" inside the rail. The effect of another horse pushing is minor over all unless is was WAY OUT OF LINE for that particular horse. On the other side of the coin are the pressers and sustained efforts: THEY are all in response to another horse. Just because a horse had a good line as a presser or sustained animal, TO WHAT PACE OF RACE did it react to? Apples and orange come up again and again unless you can find and project an early pace of race that this presser or sustained horse would be running to chase TODAY. Choosing a pace line that was a bit EARLER or LATER than is projected as the early pace of race TODAY, introduces a large sample error and I find that is the toughest thing to do in pace analysis. Ideas? __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 11-25-2021 at 02:13 PM.