There have been some requests for a look at turf races and some more examples of deciding how the Race will run, Early (E) or Other Than Early (OTE). So I thought we might look at the two Turf races we looked at on the webinar. For me, I find that the percentage of winners identified as contenders is about the same for turf and dirt using this approach.
As far as deciding whether the race will run E or OTE, I hope the process is easy to see at which point just practicing identifying the shading of old races and then looking at the charts is the best way to work on developing this art. Basically, if you identify the race running Early did the Early horses win. If you identify the race to run other than early did the later horses win.
Let’s jump in! We are looking at race 7 and 8 at Belmont on November 5th.
BEL 7
Here we see a field of 6 horses. We have a lone E who does not meet the criteria for being a contender but we will leave him in as he is the lone E and one of the favorites. With him we have an EP6, a P5 an S3 and two S1. It has been my experience that S1s often get to far back and need some help getting up in time to win. So our initial thought is this will be decided Early. The E8 will go out front early, can anyone catch him?
Our segments screen tells us that our E8 will indeed be out front with a good lead in the first fraction. Notice that the closest horse in the first fraction is a secondary contender, the 5. The 4 is not too far behind the 5. The 2 horse should be on the lead at the 2nd call and horses that own two fractions are dangerous critters.
Our primary screen tells us that the 2 is the best Early but his other numbers don’t look great. His FX is not bad and his CSR is OK but not good. Notice how ESP supports our call of shading the race Early. All the contenders expend their energy late, when that happens look for the earliest of the late for the win. The 2 again looks like the earliest of the field.
The Rx screen again substantiates that our 2 is the best EPR horse. Is there a horse that can catch him? Did he get enough of a lead to make it home? It looks to me like the 3 might be able to catch him. The 3 is an S1 and may not make it to the front in time. They both have serious questions but they are the play here. 2 and 3 are my choices.
Interesting race, our 2 ran a presser race with the other early horse the 5 and caught him in the stretch. Our other choice the 3 ran 3rd, as often happens with one of our two choices. The 3, an S1, got too far back and never made it to the front and our two earliest horses finished 1st and 2nd. What makes this race interesting, is that it may have looked like it ran late with the 2 winning in the stretch but our two earliest first fraction horses came in together.