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Old 02-07-2016, 02:21 PM   #2
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
Robert Lewis Stakes 1 1/16th

Mor Spirit
Result chart:
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Bob Baffert is back in the Derby chase with Mor Spirit in 2016, but it is obviously Mor Spirit is no American Pharoah.

In the Robert Lewis, Mor Spirit chased some moderate soft fractions of 47.4 for 4 furlongs and 112.1 for 6 furlongs with a respectable 30.70 last fraction.

When we evaluate the last fraction of 30.70 of Mor Spirit, it is one analysis to determine its innate ability to compete competitively at the Kentucky Derby distance but it must be analyze in context of the early pace fraction it had to exert. In general, it is nothing extraordinary if it had chased an early 6 furlong fractions of 114.0 or slower. But if the Derby contender had exerted a 6 furlong fraction of 112 or faster and then if it had came home in 30 and change, then we should take this Derby contender seriously. So in general; what was the last closing fraction in relation to the early pace exerted...

Here are a couple of past Derby winners to compare:

I'll Have Another-2012 Derby winner
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American Pharoah-2015 Triple Crown winner
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What was very impressive about American Pharoah's race in the Front Runner Stakes was it was its first two turn route race and Pharoah ran this race in September of its two year old season. These posts are JMHO and personal observations through the years following the Kentucky Derby contenders. Until the next prep race...
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